The Manchester derby is not what it once was. A clash of genuine juggernauts in the early 2010s, this might be the first time in several generations that these two face off with neither side a legitimate, top-tier contender to win the Premier League title. For both United and City, aspirations may need to be checked this season, and that is reflected in what they have chosen to do between the posts.
A year ago, it would be Ederson and Andre Onana in goal, but both have been lured by the riches on offer in Turkey’s Super Lig. Their now former clubs were more than happy for them to depart too, with both Ruben Amorim and Pep Guardiola concluding that what they actually needed was better shot-stopping. United went for a goalkeeper in Senne Lammens, whose advanced metrics in league play ranked among the best in Europe last season. City picked up another in James Trafford before an addition of Gianluigi Donnarumma that seemed more spur of the moment, sweeping in when Paris Saint-Germain boss Luis Enrique concluded he needed more in a position where he had the Champions League’s outstanding performer last season.
United were linked with Donnarumma throughout the summer but are understood to have concluded that the combined fee and salary — the Italian is said to be earning over $17 million a year after his $31.7 million move — was beyond their reach in such straightened times. Similarly, they steered clear of Emiliano Martinez despite the Argentine’s very obvious interest in leaving Aston Villa.
If United have got their business right, they might find themselves exploiting a market inefficiency for the first time in a very long time. While so many elite clubs covet goalkeepers that are good with their feet, who can step into the backline and aid build-up, the Red Devils appear to have taken a swing on a player whose best skill is his ability to stop the ball going into the net. In last season’s Belgian Pro League, Lammens conceded 14.5 fewer goals than the post-shot expected goal value of the shots he faced.
Now, these numbers are notorious for the air they have in them, and it is hard to confidently project Lammens as a high-grade Premier League goalkeeper off one season in the Pro League. Still, there are other metrics where the 23-year-old looks solid, at 6-foot-4, it is no wonder that he looked solid under the high ball, for instance. It is notable too that Lammens is not one to work it short, per Wyscout, he has played more passes in his career that were over 40 meters than under 20 meters. Onana had been dubbed the herald of a bright new future at Manchester United at least in part because of his abilities with the ball at his feet. Those are great qualities to have in any goalkeeper but not if they come at the cost of what they do when they face a shot or cross.
TruMedia
That ultimately was Onana’s great problem. Nothing more and nothing less than him letting in more goals than he was supposed to. His difficulties are not easy to catch in data — in his two years and change before moving to Trabzonspor, he was a net positive in terms of goals prevented — but were apparent to anyone who saw him struggle with corners or get a weak glove to the ball down at his near post.
The root cause of that depends on who you ask. Those who have worked with Onana will remind you that he was considered the outstanding goalkeeper in the Champions League before he left Inter for United. He was signed for what he could do in possession, yet only a handful of games into his time with the club Erik ten Hag decided he’d want his goalkeeper to play long.
Equally, it is fair to wonder whether Onana had the “rhino skin” that former United defender Phil Jones said this week is needed to be the club’s No. 1. The club was as turbulent as it ever has been during the Cameroonian’s time there; the chopping and changing of coaches, set piece defenses and the center backs ahead of him did Onana few favors with the spotlight hammering down on him.
That latter factor is one worthy of consideration in how Amorim has approached the shake-up of his goalkeeping department. Rather than gamble that any No.1 will have the minerals to cope with United’s pressure, he seems intent on easing the focus on Lammens. Perhaps he is aware of how Onana was thrust into a main character role from the minute he escaped a penalty for wiping out Wolves’ Sasa Kalajdzic on debut. There is little to no prospect of Lammens having to deal with similar scrutiny in the derby with Amorim confirming that Altay Bayindir will start the game, even as he suggested the new man could be United’s first choice “for a number of years.”
“It is a different league, different country, different ball,” said Amorim. “Altay is going to continue.” In emphasising the long term, Amorim is attempting to buy time for Lammens, something that was never really afforded to Onana.
It is hard to see the same long-term view in City’s changes at goalkeeper. After all, the broad sweep of Pep Guardiola’s career has suggested that he is a coach who is more than prepared to sacrifice pure shot-stopping for on-ball qualities. If any team can do that, it’s the one with two-thirds possession and the best defenders in the world standing between the opposition and goalkeepers. In 2016, he was prepared to ditch Joe Hart for Claudio Bravo and Willy Caballero, holding firm in spite of the errors. A year later, he got his man in Ederson, a player of such outstanding technical qualities that there were those prepared to argue he should be City’s penalty taker. By the time he departed for Fenerbahce, he held the Premier League record for most assists by a goalkeeper.
Replacing him, first came Trafford, a City academy product whose shot-stopping form effectively promoted Burnley, and then Donnarumma. The latter could scarcely be more of a zag to Ederson’s zig among the game’s goalkeeping elite. There are reasons unique to Ederson that explain why a change was required. The Brazilian was increasingly injury-prone in the last two seasons and although he began the summer insisting he was going nowhere, it was clear as autumn approached that Turkey held its appeal to a man who had won it all in England.
Türkiye’s huge summer of transfers explained: How Galatasaray and Fenerbahce can outspend Europe’s big clubs
James Benge
Still, if City had wanted, they could have signed at least one goalkeeper who was more in the mold of their outgoing legend. Guardiola put it best on Friday in highlighting the qualities of his new signing. “He is so tall, he is so huge. [From] all the keepers, we want safe balls, give confidence to the team, have personality and a big presence.
“In the biggest stages in the Champions League last season, at Villa Park, Anfield and in many games, he proved how good he is. He is going to concede goals, that is for sure, but all of us, we are going to try to handle it.”
There is no prospect, Guardiola insisted, of Donnarumma being asked to start transitions and build attacks like Ederson did. “I always try to adapt the quality of the players. I will not demand to Gigi to do something like he is uncomfortable. We are talking about the best players I’ve ever seen in the distribution, in short and long, I’ve ever seen with Ederson. So, we didn’t take Gigi to do what Ederson has done; Gigi has another quality.”
Why change? The answer lies less in what City can do with the ball than what they can’t do without it. The two seasons before this one saw a dramatic upswing in their vulnerability to the counter attack. In 2023-24, they conceded eight goals from opposition fast breaks, two more than in the past three seasons combined. The raw numbers dropped last season, but more by good fortune than design. The deposed champions gave up over eight expected goals (xG) to teams breaking on them; only Leicester City allowed more.
A team that routinely kept the opposition at six, seven, eight shots per game and less than one xG was giving up over shots and 1.3 xG in 2024-25. The very early signs of this year are that Rodri’s return has not been a cure-all. Ederson had a very successful run in terms of goals prevented in 2024-25, but if City’s future involves them defending a fair wedge worse than Arsenal or Liverpool, then they are going to need Grade A goalkeeping to keep up with the top two.
Whether Guardiola will be true to his insistence on coping without distribution remains to be seen. A composed start against United on Sunday would certainly go some way to proving that Donnarumma can be as valuable to City as his predecessor was.
