The NFL returns with Bills vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football, the end of a day that also features 10 MLB games, the 2025 WNBA Playoffs and UEFA Champions League play. Buffalo will host its AFC East rival and kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET with the Bills favored by 12.5 points and the over/under at 49.5 points in the latest Week 3 NFL odds. Over 49.5 points in Dolphins vs. Bills is one of our top picks for Thursday, with the SportsLine Projection Model predicting that 58 points are scored on average and that the over hits in 67% of simulations.
Click here to bet today’s games with the latest FanDuel promo code, which gives new users $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins:
Whether you’re looking into NFL betting, MLB betting, soccer betting, or anything else on the Thursday sports schedule, there are a number of online sports betting options, and our team can help point you in the right direction. Our computer model and experts will weigh in on all of the biggest events every day, and they’re offering their top sports betting picks right now.
Here’s what we’re betting today:
Thursday NFL best bets
- Game: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
- Model Pick: De’Von Achane anytime touchdown scorer (+120)
The Miami offense has looked generally out of sorts and Achane has only carried the ball 18 times with the Dolphins largely playing from a trail position. However, Achane is still heavily involved in the passing game and has scored a receiving touchdown in each of the first two games. He’s also given the Bills fits in his career, scoring six times in four games against Buffalo. The model predicts that he scores 0.77 touchdowns on average, which significantly outpaces the implied odds that Achane scores 44.4% of the time.
- Game: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
- Model Pick: Bills -12 (-105)
In the Josh Allen era, Buffalo has won 12 of 14 games against Miami and has also covered the spread in three of the last four head-to-head matchups. The Dolphins were smashed in Week 1 by the Colts and then lost as favorites against the Patriots last week. Meanwhile, the Bills erased a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Ravens in a classic to start the season and then coasted to a 30-10 victory over the Jets. Even laying a big number like this, the model has the Bills covering in 57% of simulations.
- Game: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
- Model Pick: Over 49.5 points (-112)
In 14 career starts against the Dolphins, Josh Allen has thrown for 3,737 yards and 37 touchdowns. That’s 640 more yards and 18 more touchdowns than he has against any other team in his career. The last time these two teams met, it was a 30-27 shootout November of last year. Miami showed a little bit more life offensively last week and the Bills are clearly rolling, having scored 71 points in the first two weeks. The model says the over hits in 67% of simulations.
More NFL best bets
Thursday UCL best bets
- Game: Man City vs. Napoli (Thursday, 3 p.m. ET)
- Expert Pick: Man City -155
“(Kevin de Bruyne) has a made a flying start to life in Naples, and he will be keen to prove he’s still got it when he faces his former employers,” SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green said. “De Bruyne will be fired-up, but Napoli could ultimately come unstuck against a more technically gifted Man City team.”
More UCL best bets
Thursday MLB best bets
- Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Thursday, 1:10 p.m. ET)
- Model Pick: Rays money line (+105)
Tampa Bay won’t make the 2025 MLB Playoffs and the Blue Jays are well on their way to an AL East title and the best record in the American League. However, Toronto did lose to Tampa Bay yesterday and Chris Bassitt was roughed up in his most recent start against the Rays on May 25. He gave up five earned runs and allowed 11 baserunners (nine hits and two walks) over four innings in what wound up being a 13-0 loss. The model says Tampa Bay wins in 56% of simulations.
More MLB best bets
- Top player prop: Riley Greene, Tigers, Over 0.5 home runs (+450) (EXPERT)
- Top player prop: Yusei Kikuchi, Angels, Over 4.5 total strikeouts (-112) (MODEL)
