The scenarios on the NWSL’s second-ever decision day on Sunday may be straightforward as two teams compete for the final playoff berth, but the circumstances vary for the last two teams in the mix. The North Carolina, a postseason perennial, may have a chance but it is Racing Louisville who lead the charge for eighth place – and may just book their first trip to the playoffs in the process.
Louisville carry not only a two-point advantage heading into the final weekend but have a favorable fixture waiting for them on Sunday against Bay FC, a team whose playoff run officially ended weeks ago and are on the cusp of a coaching change that almost ensures the club has one eye on the future even as they close out the season. The Courage have less room for error – they need a win to cap off a tumultuous regular season on the field, but face a Gotham FC side that will be incentivized to win in order to secure home-field advantage in the postseason.
It is an unusual position for both playoff hopefuls but especially Louisville, who have been close to the postseason but are a regular fixture in the bottom portion of the table. That is not to say their status as the favorites to reach the playoffs is undeserved – steady progress under head coach Bev Yanez has subtly improved their standing in recent years, another contrast to a Courage side that underwent a managerial change when Sean Nahas was fired over the summer. Questions about how deep a playoff run Louisville can actually make are valid but, for the time being, almost feel secondary. The more pressing inquiry – is this, at long last, Louisville’s year?
NWSL Decision Day schedule
Sunday, Nov. 2
Kansas City Current vs. San Diego Wave | 3 p.m. | ESPN, Fubo (Try for free)
Utah Royals vs. Washington Spiri | 5 p.m. | NWSL+
Portland Thorns vs. Houston Dash | 5 p.m. | NWSL+
Orlando Pride vs. Seattle Reign | 5 p.m. | NWSL+
North Carolina Courage vs. Gotham FC | 5 p.m. | ESPN, Fubo (Try for free)
Racing Louisville vs. Bay FC | 5 p.m. | NWSL+
Chicago Stars vs. Angel City | 5 p.m. | NWSL+
A tale of two inconsistent teams
A playoff berth comes with the hopeless optimism that truly anything is possible in a one-off but even then, there is something unglamorous about a battle for eighth place. Louisville and the Courage are middling teams for a reason this season and share some commonalities as a result, but the Courage’s campaign is an example in extremes that have proven to be very costly.
If the league table was rearranged on expected goal differential, both would rank inside the top eight alongside just about every other playoff team. Neither side has quite lived up to their own potential this season, though – Louisville’s goal differential is -4 despite posting 2.56 xG, while the Courage’s season has played out as if a data-savvy person was asked to make a joke about expectation vs. reality. The three-time NWSL champions currently boast the league’s second-best xGD at 9 but instead have a goal differential of minus three, that difference between expected goal difference and actual goal difference the worst in the league for teams in the top nine.
Both sides have just three wins in their last 11 but the Courage’s underperformance this season means Louisville’s imperfections pale in comparison. Inconsistency has wreaked havoc on the Courage’s season, making the prospect of reaching the postseason seem like an uphill battle. They will benefit from the fact that Gotham have been inconsistent in their own right recently, posting just one win in their last six, but the onus will be on the Courage to get the job done on Sunday. Gotham will be chasing a win so they can rise from seventh to third if other results are in their favor, which may play well for the Courage’s cheat code – individual brilliance.
Individual talent leads the way
For both Louisville and the Courage, inconsistency has reigned supreme in their seasons but each side has had a standout attacker who has offered some much-needed reliability. Louisville’s Emma Sears and the Courage’s Manaka Matsukubo each have 10 goals, nearly 30% of the goals scored by their teams this season. Sears and Matsukubo, both tied for third in the NWSL’s golden boot race, are essentially in a class of their own on their teams – Taylor Flint is the next highest goalscorer in Louisville with four goals, while Brianna Pinto fills that slot in North Carolina with three goals.
Matsukubo’s impressive run of form will be key for the Courage on Sunday, her individual talents potentially enough to break through a Gotham defense that has conceded the fewest goals in regular-season play so far this season. The Courage might be overly reliant on Matsukubo on Sunday, though, especially considering the team’s collective attacking showing this season. They have underperformed their expected goals tally by a margin of seven goals, behind only Bay FC in that regard, just one of several issues that may soon become issues for next season as they lock in a head coach with Nathan Thackeray acting in an interim capacity.
Louisville may also be overly reliant on Sears but the circumstances on Sunday favor them in almost every sense. While the Courage’s attacking inconsistencies may be exacerbated by Gotham’s sturdy defense, Sears and Louisville may benefit from Bay’s flimsiness in the back. U.S. women’s national team player Sears is a tough physical match for any defense but Bay’s has not covered itself in glory this season, outdoing their expected goals against tally of 34.62 by conceding 40 goals so far.
