After weeks of assumptions, conjecture, unmet expectations, and unexpected results, the first College Football Playoff rankings for 2025 will be released on Tuesday night.
So far, we’ve been following the US LBM Coaches and AP Polls, but those are only for fun and discussion. Beginning Tuesday, and through the rest of the season, the CFP rankings will be widely used because those are the rankings that will be used to slot teams into the 12-team College Football Playoff.
We’ll get a real, live look at those rankings once they are announced on ESPN if you can find the network these days (we’re talking to you YouTube TV subscribers), but we like to predict what those rankings will look like ahead of the reveal each week. And, since the first release is occurring on Tuesday — well, we’re game.
Here’s how we see the first College Football Playoff Rankings for 2025 playing out on Tuesday night. We’ll go from No. 12 down to No. 1.
Why it makes sense
Notre Dame was left for dead after losing the first two games of the year but has since rebounded to win six games in a row. The committee will be kind when discussing the loss to an undefeated and likely top-three-ranked Texas A&M, but the Miami loss is not looking as good. Still, though, it’s two losses against ranked teams, and the win over USC will play well too. There’s a chance the quality of wins isn’t there to get the Fighting Irish this high, but we say good for now.
Why it makes sense
Oklahoma barely gets into the top 12 because it has wins over Tennessee and Michigan, two quality, ranked wins. The margin for error is very thin, though, even for an SEC team that always seems to get the benefit of the doubt, and the head-to-head loss to Texas will likely be a backstop until and if the Longhorns lose another game. There’s still a long way to go, and Oklahoma still has plenty of work to do.
Why it makes sense
Texas was expected to contend for a CFP national championship, but because of some early troubles with two losses, the Longhorns too are on life support, but probably control their own destiny. The win over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma will look great in the committee’s eyes, while a close loss to Ohio State on the road won’t be that big of a black eye. Can Texas keep finding a way to survive, though, is the question.
No. 9 – Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1)
Why it makes sense
The best win Texas Tech has is the dominant win over Utah, but aside from that, there’s not much to hang its hat on. The committee will be able to reward the Red Raiders if they can beat BYU on Saturday, but if they don’t, it could spell trouble because there’s just not a lot of opportunities to get quality wins. The loss to Arizona State could be a problem now and down the road, but the record of 8-1 may be enough to keep them above the Longhorns, Sooners, and Fighting Irish. We’ll see …
No. 8 – BYU Cougars (8-0)
Why it makes sense
It would be easy to just put BYU up among the unbeatens, and maybe that’s what the committee will do, but there’s only one win against a ranked opponent — if Utah is ranked by the CFP Committee — and one of those is against an FCS opponent. The Cougars will get a chance to prove their worth against Texas Tech this coming weekend, but there is past precedent for a wait-and-see approach with a non-traditional power by the committee.
Why it makes sense
Oregon has just one loss against what we assume will be one of the top two-ranked teams in the released rankings, Indiana. You might argue that there’s not a real quality win in there, and you’d be right, but the game control is good, and the committee has shown a bit of a bias for traditional powers from the Power Four schools. The Ducks will have opportunities to build the resume with a pretty brutal finishing kick.
No. 6 – Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)
Why it makes sense
Ole Miss will get a lot of credit for the win against Oklahoma. The SEC always gets a bump, so there’s not much of a chance of seeing the Rebels fall below this, especially since the only loss is to a Georgia team that will undoubtedly be ranked ahead of them.
Why it makes sense
Georgia has struggled with game control at times, but it just keeps finding a way to win. The Bulldogs can’t really be ranked below Ole Miss because of the head-to-head, but we can’t see them being ranked above the four teams ahead of them here, so this sounds just about right. The only loss is a close one to an Alabama team that’ll be inside the top five.
Why it makes sense
The season-opening loss to Florida State is a bad one, but the Tide made up for it by winning seven games in a row, including wins over a highly ranked Georgia team as well as Tennessee and Missouri, which will most likely be well inside the CFP top 25 as well. The committee will see the team as an improving one that is playing some of the best football in the country coming out of the big, bad SEC.
Why it makes sense
Texas A&M is undefeated coming out of the SEC, and that’s historically the sweet spot for the committee. However, there’s actually a lack of quality wins, and the game control hasn’t been as good as what we’ve seen from Ohio State and Indiana. The win against Notre Dame is the best, and that will be the only win over a ranked opponent when the rankings are released.
Why it makes sense
It’s possible the committee will elevate Indiana over Ohio State because of the win at Oregon, and would almost certainly be there if Penn State hadn’t fallen off a cliff. The schedule is brutal coming down the stretch, but believe it or not, depending on where Iowa is, there’s still a lack of quality wins. But the Hoosiers have been so dominant that it may not matter much. All things being equal, the committee may value Ohio State’s efficiency metrics on both sides of the ball over Indiana lookikng dominant against lesser competition.
Why it makes sense
Not only does Ohio State pass the eye test, but it is the most efficient team in the country when you combine the offense and defense, and the defense in particular is historically good. The wins against Texas and at Washington – both of which should be ranked — will carry a lot of weight. More than anything, the game control will push the Buckeyes over the edge for the No. 1 spot over Indiana. But … the margin is razor-thin, and if Indiana is No. 1, it’s hard to argue too much against.
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