Facing a College Football Playoff elimination game, 11th-ranked and two-loss Oklahoma delivered its top performance of the season at fourth-ranked Alabama, swatting the Crimson Tide’s eight-game winning streak as the Sooners regained control of their destiny. Brent Venables’ defense helped Oklahoma catapult itself ahead of Texas and Notre Dame in the race with a game control and strength of schedule edge over both.
Oklahoma’s victory significantly alters this week’s bowl projections and playoff lookahead, pushing the Sooners up to No. 9 with a predicted 10-2 overall finish. Alabama needs to beat Auburn during rivalry weekend at the end of the month to lock in a berth. An upset loss to the Tigers would potentially spoil Kalen DeBoer’s second campaign and put the Crimson Tide in a logjam of at-large hopefuls.
No. 5 Georgia’s convincing win over 10th-ranked Texas pushes the Longhorns out of the picture this week and sets up a first-round bye possibility for the Bulldogs. Georgia’s won six straight games and would have an opportunity at defending its SEC title in Atlanta if Alabama loses to Auburn or Texas beats Texas A&M on Nov. 28.
2025 ACC Championship Game scenarios: Georgia Tech in driver’s seat, Miami still has path after Week 12 win
Brad Crawford
After accurately projecting all 25 teams — including the top 14 in order — of last week’s second playoff selection committee rankings, we’ll have our updated predictions next week on how we think Tuesday’s new poll will look.
For now, here’s a glance at how we see the 12-team CFP bracket unfolding in early December coming out of Week 12:
Quarterfinals
| Date | Game / Location | Projection |
|---|---|---|
|
Jan. 1 |
Rose Bowl |
(1) Ohio State vs. (8/9) Winner |
|
Jan. 1 |
Sugar Bowl |
(2) Texas A&M vs. (7/10) Winner |
|
Jan. 1 |
Orange Bowl |
(3) Indiana vs. (6/11) Winner |
|
Dec. 31 |
Cotton Bowl |
(4) Georgia vs. (5/12) Winner |
First round
| Date | Location | Projection | Winner faces |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Dec. 19 or 20 |
Autzen Stadium |
(8) Oregon vs. (9) Oklahoma | (1) Ohio State |
|
Dec. 19 or 20 |
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium |
(7) Ole Miss vs. (10) Notre Dame | (2) Texas A&M |
|
Dec. 19 or 20 |
Bryant Denny Stadium |
(6) Alabama vs. (11) Georgia Tech | (3) Indiana |
|
Dec. 19 or 20 |
Jones AT&T Stadium |
(5) Texas Tech vs. (12) North Texas | (4) Georgia |
Don’t see your team? Check out Brad Crawford’s complete bowl projections.
Projected College Football Playoff Field breakdown
1. Ohio State (projected Big Ten champion): There’s a narrative forming around the dominant Buckeyes that the lack of a competitive game this season is going to haunt this team in the postseason. What if Ohio State’s just that much better than who it has played up to this point? We’ll know more in a couple of weeks at Michigan, followed by a titanic matchup with Indiana in the Big Ten title game should both win out.
2. Texas A&M (projected SEC champion): Whatever Mike Elko told his unbeaten Aggies at halftime of a 27-point deficit against South Carolina worked as Texas A&M pieced together the biggest SEC comeback in two decades. Marcel Reed was marvelous after intermission, shaking off multiple first-half turnovers to help the Aggies score 28 unanswered points. They’re in the SEC Championship Game with a win over Texas in two weeks.
3. Indiana: Four more touchdowns from Heisman frontrunner Fernando Mendoza carried the Hoosiers to a win over Wisconsin with a trip to Purdue being the only hurdle remaining from an unbeaten regular season. We’re all looking forward to Ohio State-Indiana in Indianapolis, which will ultimately determine the bracket’s top seed.
4. Georgia: By virtue of likely finishing 11-1 and not having to play in the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs’ path to a top-four seed and opening-round bye we talked about prior to their win over Texas may come to fruition. Georgia’s only loss this season came against Alabama in September, and the Bulldogs would have a 1) better record than the Crimson Tide 2) a rivalry-weekend win over ranked Georgia Tech and 3) no ugly setbacks on their resume.
5. Texas Tech: Style points. That’s what it’s about moving forward for the Red Raiders, who are the overwhelming favorites in the Big 12 following last week’s bludgeoning of BYU and a beatdown of UCF at home. Coming out of Week 12, we still see the Big 12 as a one-bid league with projected runner-up BYU needing help.
6. Alabama: Despite Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma snapping the Crimson TIde’s eight-game winning streak, a victory over Auburn in two weeks would be enough to push them into league title game. However, a loss to Texas A&M and a 10-3 finish would be enough — we’re projecting — to push Kalen DeBoer’s squad out of a first-round bye opportunity.
7. Ole Miss: Distracted much? The Rebels trailed much of the game at home to Florida, the program courting Lane Kiffin for its coaching vacancy. They settled down late to avoid a colossal upset for the second straight season against the Gators and only have Mississippi State left to wrap up their first playoff appearance in program history.
8. Oregon: No. 8 in last week’s playoff rankings, if the Ducks beat USC next week then Washington on the road to close things out, that should be enough to squeak out the committee’s final first-round home game. A loss to either complicates matters, especially for the Trojans. That would potentially push USC to the bracket and Oregon out.
9. Oklahoma: It would be extremely bold to put the Sooners ahead of one-loss Oregon on Tuesday night despite Oklahoma’s better collection of wins and overall resume given the difference in record between the two. Regardless, the Sooners are going to move up from No. 11 and firmly into the at-large designation after beating Alabama on the road. We picking a 10-2 finish and No. 9 seed, ahead of a 10-win Fighting Irish without the same number of quality wins.
10. Notre Dame: Hanging on to our “last team in” designation, the Fighting Irish made easy work of Pitt behind Jeremiyah Love and CJ Carr for their eighth consecutive win. The committee loves Notre Dame, and this team should cruise against Syracuse and Stanford the remaining weeks, locking in a first-round road game unless there’s further chaos. And don’t worry — the committee has already told us how they feel about Miami in this conversation.
11. Georgia Tech: The only ACC team in control of their own destiny with two weeks left, the Yellow Jackets’ comeback win at Boston College was not pretty, but it was effective. With a win over Pitt next week, Georgia Tech clinches a spot in the ACC title game. If Brent Key is able to take out Kirby Smart during rivalry weekend, push the Yellow Jackets up a spot or two in terms of seeding.
12. North Texas (projected Group of Five champion): Down goes South Florida! Navy’s win over the Bulls put the Midshipmen as one of four teams with one conference loss heading into Week 13, but we’re sticking with the Mean Green as our projected champion of the American in this spot. James Madison was a 58-10 winner over Appalachian State, so the Dukes maintained their interest in the race as well.
