Week 11 in the NFL had no shortage of drama, as many of the early games went down to the wire.
Out of the gate, the Sunday slate opened up with a back-and-forth affair between the Dolphins and Commanders from Madrid, which required overtime to make Miami the winner. And as we migrated to the early afternoon slate, one-possession games were a theme throughout. The Bears and Texans notched another win in the column thanks to last-second field goals, and the Packers narrowly escaped New York with a victory against the Jameis Winston-led Giants.
There was plenty to digest throughout the Sunday slate, and there’s a plethora of storylines bursting from all this action. But let’s sift through some of those main storylines and decipher which we should take seriously and the other with grains of salt, as they don’t mean as much as they may seem.
NFL Week 11 grades: Josh Allen wills the Bills to an ‘A-,’ Broncos earn ‘B+’ for upset win over Chiefs
John Breech
Dolphins are back in the AFC playoff conversation
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Miami enters its Week 12 bye on a high note. The club has won three of its last four games to move to 4-7 on the season. While that has somewhat righted the ship and cooled the seat under coach Mike McDaniel, this recent surge isn’t going to thrust them back into the playoffs. This positive run could continue out of the bye with matchups against the Saints and Jets (road) in Week 13 and Week 14, but the schedule gets much tougher after that. Assuming they take care of business in those two games and claw to 6-7, the final month will make it difficult for them to get to or exceed .500. They take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh on “Monday Night Football” in Week 15 before back-to-back home games against the Bengals (likely with Joe Burrow back at quarterback) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Then, they wrap up the year in New England against the Patriots. Miami likely won’t be favored in any of those final four games, so this recent upward swing may come in vain with a knockout blow over the final four weeks.
Chargers at risk of missing the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Reality
That was a rough showing by the Chargers, who were blown out by the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, 35-6. Justin Herbert continues to take his fair share of hits, but the quarterback also laid an egg. He completed 10 of his 18 passes for just 81 yards and an interception. This loss now drops the Chargers to 7-4 on the year, and doesn’t do them any favors in the playoff race. They’ve lost a key head-to-head tiebreaker to Jacksonville (6-4) in the wild card race and still have a daunting schedule in front of them following the Week 12 bye.
The following three opponents for Los Angeles each boast a strong pass rush, which could further exploit the Chargers’ weakness at protecting Herbert. After seeing the offense go silent with him under siege again on Sunday against Jacksonville, their footing in the AFC playoff picture doesn’t feel secure.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Overall, McCarthy wasn’t good against Chicago, even as the Vikings nearly pulled off another fourth-quarter comeback against their division rival. McCarthy completed just 16 of his 32 passes for 150 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions. So far, McCarthy has eight interceptions in five career starts and is the first quarterback to record an interception in five straight games to begin his career since Zach Wilson in 2021. Not exactly the company you want to keep in the NFL record books. But does this take us to the point where Minnesota should bench McCarthy? That feels a touch too far, at least right now. The Vikings used a first-round pick on McCarthy in 2024 and moved off of Sam Darnold this offseason to see that selection through. Five total starts is too small a sample size to move off of him and effectively give up hope that he’s their franchise quarterback going forward. It hasn’t looked great, but the organization needs to grit through and give McCarthy the rest of the season before making any long-term proclamations.
Packers are not a serious Super Bowl threat
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Green Bay once again played down to its competition. While it didn’t result in a loss this time around, the Packers needed a go-ahead touchdown drive and two-point conversion to fend off the New York Giants. Remember, this is a Giants team that had just fired its coach, and their budding star at quarterback, Jaxson Dart, was out with a concussion. Despite that lopsided talent disparity, Green Bay allowed the Jameis Winston-led Giants to post 336 yards of total offense. New York edged out the Packers in total yards and time of possession in Week 11. Again, this is a Giants squad that is going to be in contention for the No. 1 overall pick. When you pair this performance (albeit in a winning effort) with earlier losses this season to the Cleveland Browns and Carolina Panthers, it’s hard to look at the Packers as a serious Super Bowl threat in the NFC at the moment.
Dave Canales is off the hot seat
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Carolina Panthers (6-5) are back above .500 with a dramatic overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The club completed the season sweep of their division rival and is second in the NFC South, just a game behind the Buccaneers in the loss column (6-4). Carolina has been one of the surprise teams of the 2025 season, and Dave Canales has been getting the most out of his roster, particularly with quarterback Bryce Young. All of that has cooled what had previously been one of the hotter seats in the NFL. However, has Canales taken himself off the hot seat entirely? Not yet. The road in front of the Panthers is very difficult as they face the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams over the next two weeks before their Week 14 bye. Over the final month, they have two divisional matchups against the Buccaneers and a contest against the Seattle Seahawks. That rough schedule in the second half could end the 2025 campaign on a low note, leaving questions about Canales’ future despite this positive run at the moment.
Overreaction or reality: Reality
I think we saw a brief window into why Kevin Stefanski hasn’t been chomping at the bit to see Shedeur Sanders under center. While coming in under duress following Dillon Gabriel’s concussion isn’t exactly the cleanest debut, Sanders didn’t exactly rise to the occasion either. The game looked fast for him as he completed just four of his 16 pass attempts for 47 yards, an interception, and was sacked twice. He may get the starting nod next week if Gabriel can’t clear protocol, but Sanders didn’t do much in this showing to embolden those who believe he’s a starting-caliber NFL quarterback.
Sam Darnold has turned into a pumpkin
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Four interceptions. Yuck. It was a horrendous showing by Sam Darnold, who registered the third game of four-plus interceptions of his career and the first since his infamous “Seeing Ghosts” game with the Jets in 2019. Despite his remarkable resurgence over the last two years, Darnold’s 30 turnovers since 2024 are the most in the NFL, so seeing his game deteriorate like we did on Sunday is concerning. Does that mean he’s totally turned into a pumpkin, though? I don’t think we should go that far. Darnold has been one of the better quarterbacks in the league this season, but was going up against one of the top defenses in the league in the Los Angeles Rams. Sean McVay also seems to have his number, as they were able to shut him down during Wild Card Weekend last season as well. May just chalk this up to a bad performance against a team that’s a bad matchup for him, rather than this being the first sign of Seattle’s playoff hopes evaporating.
49ers are in play for the No. 1 seed in the NFC
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Welcome back, Brock Purdy! With their franchise quarterback reinstalled under center after missing the bulk of the season with a toe injury, San Francisco dropped a season-high 41 points en route to a blowout win over the Cardinals. The Niners are now 7-4 on the season and in a prime position to push for a playoff spot. In fact, there’s a path for this team to pile up enough wins down the stretch to threaten for the No. 1 seed.
The next two weeks include a home matchup against the Carolina Panthers (currently a touchdown favorite) and a road contest with the Cleveland Browns, which could realistically see them with a 9-4 record entering the Week 14 bye. After that, three of their final four games are at home, with their final road contest coming in Week 16 at Indianapolis. Outside of that matchup, they host Tennessee (Week 15), Chicago (Week 17), and Seattle (Week 18). Even if they go .500 over that final month, you’re looking at an 11-6 record, which could be good enough, especially as they currently have the divisional tiebreaker (4-1 record after Week 11) over the NFC West-leading Rams (2-1) and a stellar 7-2 conference record (another key tiebreaker).
Chiefs hopes of winning AFC West are dashed
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Kansas City’s bid for 10-straight AFC West titles is on life support. With Sunday’s loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs not only dropped back down to .500 on the season at 5-5, but Denver has extended its lead in the division by a sizable amount. At 9-2, they are two games up on the Chargers and three games up over K.C. in the loss column. That’s not even accounting for the current head-to-head tiebreaker advantage they earned in Week 11. The road doesn’t get easier for the Chiefs either, as they’ll now have to host a Colts team that’ll be fresh off its bye week before turning around and visiting the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. It would require a herculean effort by Patrick Mahomes and Co. and an utter collapse by the Broncos to even make their final matchup in Week 17 carry any sort of weight in this division race.
Detroit’s offense is broken
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
It was an awful showing by the Lions offense on Sunday night in Philadelphia. The unit mustered just nine points, failed to convert any of its five fourth-down opportunities, and Jared Goff was spooked from the jump. The Detroit QB completed just 14 of his 37 passes for a career-low 38% completion rate. Specifically, he finished the game, completing just two of his final 18 attempts. Gross. While Goff and the offense certainly deserve a big slice of the blame pie for their loss, that would also discredit Philadelphia for having one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Eagles defense came into this matchup after putting Green Bay in a similar blender in Week 10, so this could speak more to Philly’s unit than any big-picture problem with Detroit’s offense.
