Key events
I should mention some notable absentees. Real Madrid are not coming at all for the second straight year. You might remember the context for their no-show in 2024 … which was as petulant as it was embarrassing.
In fairness, Madrid do have a La Liga game on Tuesday night at Levante to prepare for, but there was an obvious coldness in Xabi Alonso’s words in the pre-match press conference when he was asked if any Real Madrid delegation would be in attendance tonight.
“We have many points at stake and all the matches are important. I am not thinking about it [Ballon d’Or]. I am just focused on Levante,” said Alonso on Monday. “It’s not my topic. I don’t have to vote – we’ll see who wins after the gala. I haven’t thought about it too much.”
A reminder that Kylian Mbappé is the only representative from Real Madrid in either the male/female lists.
We go now to the red carpet, where there is the usual mix of superstar footballers, partners, ageing legends of the game and a weird and unwelcome mix of influencers and musicians. Here are a few snippets.
Already, there is quite a lot of digest. Harry Kane can probably count himself a little unlucky to be outside the top 10 given he scored 41 goals and provided 14 assists (55 GA) in just 51 games. It’s not easy to quantify just how big an impact João Neves had for PSG in midfield – scuttling interceptions don’t count for much in this ceremony – but I’m not sure PSG would have won the Champions League without him. Sandy Baltimore was sensational for Chelsea after signing last summer, she is another that is unfortunate not to make the top 10 after helping the Blues to a domestic treble.
Men’s official rankings: 30-11
11. Pedri (Barcelona & Spain)
12. Khvicha Kvaratshkelia (Napoli/PSG & Georgia)
13. Harry Kane (Bayern Munich & England)
14. Désire Doué (PSG & France)
15. Viktor Gyökeres (Sporting/Arsenal & Sweden)
16. Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid & Brazil)
17. Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona & Poland)
18. Scott McTominay (Napoli & Scotland)
19. João Neves (PSG & Portugal)
20. Lautaro Martínez (Inter & Argentina)
21. Serhou Guirassy (Dortmund & Guinea)
22. Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool & Argentina)
23. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid & England)
24. Fabian Ruiz (PSG & Spain)
25. Denzel Dumfries (Inter & Netherlands)
26. Erling Haaland (Manchester City & Norway)
27. Declan Rice (Arsenal & England)
28. Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool & Netherlands)
29. Florian Wirtz (Leverkusen/Liverpool & Germany)
30. Michael Olise (Bayern Munich & France)
Female official rankings: 30-11
In total, 30 players in both the women’s and the men’s game have been nominated and all but the top 10 in both categories have just been announced.
11. Claudia Pina (Barcelona, Spain)
12. Marta (Orlando Pride, Brazil)
13. Caroline Graham Hansen (Barcelona, Norway)
14. Barbra Banda (Orlando Pride, Zambia)
15. Sandy Baltimore (Chelsea, France)
16. Cristiana Girelli (Juventus, Italy)
17. Temwa Chawinga (Kansas City, Malawi)
18. Melchie Dumornay (Lyon, Haiti)
19. Klara Bühl (Bayern Munich, Germany)
20. Pernille Harder (Bayern Munich, Denmark)
21. Amanda Gutierres (Palmeiras, Brazil)
22. Esther Gonzalez (Gotham FC, Spain)
23. Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (Chelsea, Sweden)
24. Sofia Cantore (Juventus/Washington Spirit, Italy)
25. Emily Fox (Arsenal, United States)
26. Lindsey Horan Heaps (Lyon, United States)
27. Clara Mateo (Paris FC, France)
28. Frida Maanum (Arsenal, Norway)
29. Steph Catley (Arsenal, Australia)
30. Caroline Weir (Real Madrid, Scotland)
Preamble
Officially, the winners of the Ballon d’Or are based upon three main criteria:
1. Individual performances, decisive and impressive character.
2. Team performances and achievements
3. Class and fair play.
In a game that is increasingly decided by automatic offsides and VAR, and narratives and analysis based upon data and xG, the criteria to win the Ballon d’Or is clearly a series of subjective choices made by a relatively small group of people, each with their own biases.
I think we can all agree this is an imperfect, silly and relatively entertaining exercise is ranking things, akin to deciding what your top three cheeses (Comté, manchego, burrata) are. Sure, there are some obvious candidates, but ultimately it just comes down to personal preference. Not everyone thinks a Ligue 1 title (brie), Euro 2025 triumph (posh cheddar) or a goals/assist record (Roquefort) is the deciding factor. But some do, and that’s fine.
As long as we don’t take it all too seriously – Real Madrid, we’re looking at you – I think we might just survive the evening.
The men’s nominees for the main prize:
Ousmane Dembélé (France, Paris Saint-Germain)
Gianluigi Donnarumma (Italy, Paris Saint-Germain/Manchester City)
Achraf Hakimi (Morocco, Paris Saint-Germain)
Kylian Mbappé (France, Real Madrid)
Nuno Mendes (Portugal, Paris Saint-Germain)
Cole Palmer (England, Chelsea)
Raphinha (Brazil, Barcelona)
Mohamed Salah (Egypt, Liverpool)
Vitinha (Portugal, Paris Saint-Germain)
Lamine Yamal (Spain, Barcelona)
The women’s nominees for the main prize:
Aitana Bonmatí (Spain, Barcelona)
Lucy Bronze (England, Chelsea)
Mariona Caldentey (Spain, Arsenal)
Patri Guijarro (Spain, Barcelona)
Hannah Hampton (England, Chelsea)
Chloe Kelly (England, Arsenal)
Ewa Pajor (Poland, Barcelona)
Alexia Putellas (Spain, Barcelona)
Alessia Russo (England, Arsenal)
Leah Williamson (England, Arsenal)
Please do get in touch via email – michael.butler@theguardian.com – with your predictions, thoughts, complaints, favourite cheeses and anything else besides.
From how the votes are decided to who is (and who isn’t) turning up to tonight’s red carpet, there is plenty to unpack before the start of the ceremony at 8pm BST (9pm in Paris).
