The first round of the 2025 College Football Playoff is complete. After last year’s run of home blowouts, we saw the opposite in the first two games: a pair of nip-and-tuck ballgames with wild special teams swings and, thanks in large part to turnovers, a pair of road victors (after home teams were 4-0 in the first round last year). Alabama pulled off a 17-point comeback to beat Oklahoma 34-24 on Friday night, then Miami survived the ultimate battle of attrition in College Station, beating Texas A&M 10-3.
That wasn’t the case in the final two games. Ole Miss overwhelmed Tulane in their first game without coach Lane Kiffin. Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss accounted for more than 300 total yards and three touchdowns in the 41-10 victory. Oregon jumped out to a huge first-half lead against James Madison and cruised to an easy 51-34 win.
Here are the main takeaways from the first round.
Jump to a game: JMU-Oregon | Tulane-Ole Miss | Miami-A&M | Bama-OU
What just happened?
Over the past three seasons, Oregon has gone a combined 37-4, with losses only to a national champion (2024 Ohio State), a national finalist (2023 Washington, twice) and the current unbeaten No. 1 seed (Indiana). If you aren’t a genuine title threat, you evidently don’t have a chance against the Ducks, and James Madison most certainly didn’t have a chance Saturday night in Eugene.
The Dukes, making their playoff debut, acquitted themselves well enough on offense, eventually gaining 509 yards and scoring 34 despite leaving a few points on the board with failed red zone opportunities. But their defense, so good within the Sun Belt, got obliterated by an endless early stream of Oregon big-play threats. JMU pulled off a pretty high-wire act in 2025, taking risks, keeping defenders in the box and leaving their perimeter defenders in isolated situations. The Dukes got away with it against Louisville, allowing just 264 yards and 21 offensive points. But Oregon’s offensive line is much, much better than Louisville’s, and JMU couldn’t create any disruption. That only left the big plays. In the first half, the Dukes created zero tackles for loss and gave up five gains of 30-plus yards.
Oregon scored touchdowns on its first five possessions and didn’t punt until midway through the third quarter. Dante Moore made great throws, and when he didn’t, his receivers made great catches as his first 13 completions gained 307 yards. JMU made things annoying in garbage time, gaining 194 fourth-quarter yards and giving Oregon coach Dan Lanning a few things to yell about over the next few days, but the Ducks had this one put away early.
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Dante Moore lets it fly to Malik Benson for a TD
Dante Moore finds Malik Benson to extend Oregon’s lead vs. JMU.
Impact plays
As with Ole Miss-Tulane, when you’re heavily favored and immediately lay the hammer down, “win probability added” isn’t a very helpful concept. But because I’m a completionist, here’s the win probability chart. JMU needed a fast start and got the opposite.
See you next fall, Dukes
The financial gap between mid-majors and the richest power conference programs has grown immensely over the past 15 years or so, and with the upward stream of talent in this transfers-and-NIL universe (not to mention coaches, such as JMU’s UCLA-bound Bob Chesney). It is harder than ever for a Group of 5 team to hint at elite play like Boise State, TCU and Utah did in the late-2000s. (That said, a reminder: The Dukes would have been projected favorites over ACC champions Duke. We still might have gotten a better playoff for its inclusion.)
JMU is built to continue to play at a high level within the Sun Belt, especially with Billy Napier, the author of a particularly physical and impressive run at Louisiana before his tenure at Florida, taking over. But the Dukes got a pretty clear indication of what might await if or when they make another run toward the CFP. Can they raise their game further?
What’s next
When the playoff field was revealed two weeks ago, the first thing that caught my eye was the tantalizing prospect of an Oregon-Texas Tech quarterfinal. Oregon is still relatively new money as far as college football bluebloods go, and Tech is brand spanking new money. They’re both top-four in SP+, and they have done some of the best portal work in the country of late. They will meet in the Orange Bowl early on Jan. 1.
Can Oregon play the same type of precise and ridiculously fast ball against a Texas Tech defensive front that hasn’t been beaten much this season? Can Behren Morton and Tech’s explosive, but inconsistent, offense take what they’re given and avoid forcing the issue too much against an Oregon defense that prevents big plays well and punishes impatience (but did a little too much bending against JMU)? It’s the most interesting quarterfinal matchup.
What just happened?
Ole Miss’ offense was just too sharp, and Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff was just too error-prone. In front of a record Vaught-Hemingway Stadium crowd of 68,201, the host Rebels gained 135 yards on their first seven snaps and bolted to a 14-0 lead. Tulane held up for the rest of the first half and, trailing 17-3 at halftime, had a chance to get back into the game to start the second half. Instead, the Green Wave punted, turned the ball over on downs and lost two fumbles, both by Retzlaff. The Rebels were happy to capitalize on short fields and run up the score.
As his former school, Ferris State, was almost simultaneously winning another Division II national title, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss played an almost perfect game. Despite missing a few snaps because of injury at the end of the first half, he completed 23 of 29 passes for 282 yards and a touchdown while gaining 51 yards on four non-sack rushes. Running back Kewan Lacy also missed time because of a shoulder injury, but returned to the game and finished with 87 yards in just 15 carries. A deep receiving corps got strong games from three receivers: Deuce Alexander, De’Zhaun Stribling and tight end Dae’Quan Wright combined for 16 catches and 230 yards. Tulane’s offense made far too many mistakes, but it probably wasn’t going to matter: The Rebels were going to score too much regardless.
Impact plays
When you start as the favorite, immediately jump out to a solid lead and don’t really look back, we aren’t going to see many huge plays from a win probability standpoint. But after the Rebels went up 7-0, Tulane put together a solid 10-play drive in response. But Jaylon Braxton picked off a poor pass from Retzlaff, and after a short return and a horse collar penalty, the Rebels started their second drive at their 40. That popped their win probability up from 87.2% to 91.4%. Four plays later, it was 14-0. Their win probability didn’t drop below 91% for the rest of the game.
See you next fall, Green Wave
This was obviously a terribly disappointing finish to the Jon Sumrall era. The newly hired Florida coach led the Green Wave to 20 wins in two seasons, plus a conference title (and wins over Northwestern and Duke) this season. But his team just wasn’t sharp Saturday. Missed tackles, dropped passes and quarterback mistakes weren’t a good reflection of how well they played down the stretch to secure a bid.
Still, Tulane has positioned itself as one of the strongest programs in the Group of 5. The Green Wave have won 43 games in four seasons under first Willie Fritz and then Sumrall. Now, Will Hall, a former Fritz and Sumrall assistant, takes over. He’ll have to weather the transfer portal moves as power conference programs come for successful G5 talent, but the Green Wave are as well-positioned as anyone to keep winning.
What’s next
Ole Miss played well down the stretch as rumors swirled around Lane Kiffin’s potential departure, and in their first game post-Kiffin, they were absolutely dynamite. And now they get a chance to avenge their only loss of 2025. In a 43-35 decision at Georgia in Week 8, the Rebels led by nine into the fourth quarter until the Dawgs turned the tables late. Now, Ole Miss and Georgia will face off in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.
The key to revenge could be the Ole Miss run defense. Georgia cranked out 221 rushing yards against the Rebels, setting up Gunner Stockton with healthy downs and distances, and he responded by going 26-for-31 for 289 yards and four touchdowns (plus 59 rushing yards of his own). Run defense has been a weakness all season, and Tulane’s Jamauri McClure found some success on Saturday evening, rushing 15 times for 84 yards. Chambliss certainly learned some lessons in Athens, and the Rebels’ offense certainly doesn’t mind a track meet. But forcing the Dawgs off-schedule will be key to an upset and a trip to the semifinals.
What just happened?
Three of the sloppiest, windiest, most war-of-attrition quarters in recent college football history followed by an incredible, dramatic fourth quarter. Miami’s Mark Fletcher Jr. rushed 17 times for 172 yards, and his 56-yard charge with 4:01 left set up the game’s only touchdown, an 11-yard jet sweep from Malachi Toney. It looked as if A&M would force overtime — or score and go for two points and the win — but Bryce Fitzgerald picked off a misplaced Marcel Reed pass in the end zone with 23 seconds left, and the Hurricanes kneeled out a road win.
In a game played in extremely windy conditions, the first three quarters featured more missed field goals (4) than points (3), but a nice run of passes from Reed set up Randy Bond’s game-tying 35-yarder. Toney’s fumble near midfield with 7:11 left seemed to set the Aggies up for a major opportunity. But Rueben Bain Jr. recorded his third sack of the game to force a punt that set up heroics from Fletcher and redemption for Toney.
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Miami’s INT in end zone seals CFP First Round victory
Marcel Reed makes an inaccurate throw and Bryce Fitzgerald picks it off in the end zone to seal Miami’s win over Texas A&M.
A&M outgained Miami 326-278 and finished six drives in Canes territory, but Reed turnovers ended two of those chances and a missed field goal ended one. Miami didn’t cover itself in glory in this regard, either — six drives finished in A&M territory, producing only two scores — but two scores are greater than one. Quarterback Carson Beck finished the game 14-for-20 for 103 yards and, technically, a touchdown pass off of the jet sweep. But he avoided crucial mistakes and that ended up being a deciding factor. Reed produced more yards (he finished 25-for-39 for 237 yards, plus 27 rushing yards), but the turnovers were devastating.
Impact plays
The win probability chart barely moved over the course of the first three quarters, but it reached 67.1% for A&M following Toney’s fumble. However, some key plays made it lurch in Miami’s direction. As was the case for most of 2025, A&M absolutely owned third downs, going 8-for-18 (44.4%) while holding the Hurricanes to just 3-for-12 (25%). But Toney’s third-down score and Fitzgerald’s third-down pick got the job done.
See you next fall, Aggies
Sometimes you peak a little too early. Texas A&M moved to 9-0 in early November with demonstrative wins over LSU and Missouri, but the Aggies underachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 18.1 points per game over their last four. They needed a huge comeback to beat South Carolina, then scored just 20 combined points in losses to Texas and Miami. The defense had a big-play issue at times — something Fletcher certainly took advantage of — but when you give up 10 total points, you should win every time.
Still, a disappointing finish doesn’t negate the fact that the Aggies were ahead of schedule this fall. Starting Mike Elko’s second season at 19th in the AP poll, A&M won 11 games for the first time since the Johnny Manziel-led 2012 campaign. The Aggies went 12-13 in Jimbo Fisher’s last two years, but Elko is now 19-7, and A&M probably won’t be starting a season 19th or lower for quite a while. Elko will head into 2026 with two new coordinators after defensive coordinator Jay Bateman was allowed to leave for the same position at Kentucky and offensive coordinator Collin Klein took the Kansas State head coaching gig (Elko promoted Lyle Hemphill and Holmon Wiggins, respectively, as replacements). Elko will have to replace some serious talent in the trenches, too, led by star defensive end Cashius Howell. But the passing game comprises primarily underclassmen, and the pass rushing talent doesn’t stop at Howell. Elko’s building job should continue.
What’s next
The Hurricanes meet No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 31. With Bain’s incredible play and Miami’s generally fantastic defensive performance, there’s reason to believe they could keep the Buckeyes’ point total tamped down. But Ohio State’s defense is the best in the country; it held Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza and Indiana to 13 points in the Big Ten championship game and has allowed 300 total yards just twice in 13 games. The Buckeyes won’t offer Fletcher the same big run opportunities, so Beck will have to make all the plays he didn’t make Saturday afternoon. Can he?
Those are questions for New Year’s Eve. For now, Miami gets to celebrate its most momentous win since when, 2002? Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes fell just short of the CFP in 2024 and very easily could have missed out in this go-round as well. But they snagged a bid, and in a windy battle of wills in College Station, they held their nerve and avoided the mistakes that A&M could not. From family members to Michael Irvin, Cristobal was finding too many people to celebrate with to pay much attention to his postgame interview. He can probably be forgiven, huh?
What just happened?
Oklahoma’s offense had only 20 minutes in it. The Sooners were perfect out of the gate, bursting to a 17-0 lead against an Alabama team that looked completely unprepared for the moment. But the Crimson Tide adjusted and rallied, and OU had only a brief answer. From 17 down, Bama outscored its hosts 34-7 from there.
We use the word “momentum” far too much in football, but this was an extremely momentum-based game.
1. Over the first 19 minutes, Oklahoma went up 17-0 while outgaining Bama by a stunning 181-12 margin. It could have been worse, too, as the Sooners’ Owen Heinecke came within millimeters of a blocked punt that might have produced a safety or a touchdown.
2. Over the next 21 minutes, Bama outscored the Sooners 27-0, outgaining them 194-59. Freshman Lotzeir Brooks caught two touchdown passes — the first on a fourth-and-2 to finally get Bama on the board (after he caught a huge third-down pass earlier in the drive), and the second TD came on a 30-yard lob that put the Tide up for good. The Tide defense got pressure on John Mateer, and his footwork and composure vanished. An egregious pick-six thrown directly to Zabien Brown tied the score, and Bama scored the first 10 points of the second half as well.
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Zabien Brown stuns OU with game-tying pick-six before halftime
Zabien Brown takes a big-time interception 50 yards to the house to tie the score before halftime.
OU responded briefly, cutting the margin to three points early in the fourth quarter thanks to a 37-yard Deion Burks touchdown. But the Sooners’ offense couldn’t do enough, and kicker Tate Sandell, the Groza Award winner, missed two late field goal attempts to assure a Bama win.
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Tate Sandell’s back-to-back FG misses help Alabama secure 1st-round win
Tate Sandell misses a pair of late field goals as Alabama holds on to beat Oklahoma 34-24 in the CFP first round.
Impact plays
Oklahoma beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in November — in the game that eventually certified the Sooners’ CFP bid — thanks to a pick-six and special teams dominance. But the tables turned completely in Norman. Brown’s pick-six was huge, and special teams abandoned the Sooners, both with Sandell’s misses and a botched punt in the second quarter.
The botched punt was the second of a two-part sequence that turned the game against the Sooners. First, Mateer passed up an easy third-and-3 conversion to throw downfield to a wide-open Xavier Robinson, but Mateer short-armed the pass and Robinson dropped it. On the next snap, punter Grayson Miller dropped the ball while moving into his punting motion. Bama’s Tim Keenan III recovered the ball at the OU 30, and though OU’s defense held the Tide to a field goal, what could have been a 24-3 OU lead turned into a 17-10 advantage. That set the table for Brown’s pick-six and everything that followed.
The blown early lead leaves Oklahoma with quite the ignominious feat: In the history of the College Football Playoff, teams are 28-2 with a 17-point lead: OU is 0-2, and everyone else is 28-0. Ouch.
See you next fall, Sooners
We knew that whenever Oklahoma’s season ended, offense would be the primary reason. The Sooners survived playing with almost no margin for error for most of the year. Their No. 49 ranking in offensive SP+ was the worst of any CFP team, but they got enough defense (third in defensive SP+), special teams (21st in special teams SP+) and quality red zone play to overcome it.
The Sooners’ defense still played well Friday night — Bama gained only 260 total yards (4.8 per play) — but the special teams miscues put more pressure on the offense, and after a brilliant start, it ran out of steam. Mateer began the game 10-for-15 for 132 yards with a touchdown, 26 rushing yards and a rushing TD, but his last 31 pass attempts gained just 149 yards with five sacks and the pick, and his last nine non-sack rushes gained just 15 yards.
Brent Venables heads into the offseason facing some decisions. OU’s offense technically improved after the big-money additions of coordinator Ben Arbuckle and Mateer, but Mateer was scattershot before his midseason hand injury and poor after it. Do the Sooners run it back with the same roster core, hoping that better health and a theoretically improved run game can give the defense what it needs to take OU to the next level? Does Venables hit the reset button again? Can he ever get all the arrows pointed in the right direction at the same time?
What’s next
Alabama’s reward for the comeback win is a trip out West: The Tide will meet unbeaten and top-seeded Indiana in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. Bama’s defense will obviously face a stiffer test from Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers’ attack, but Bama’s defense has been mostly up for the test this season. The Tide’s ability to pull an upset will be determined by Ty Simpson and the Alabama passing game.
Simpson began Friday night’s win just 2-for-6 with a sack, and though he improved from there and didn’t throw any interceptions — his final passing line: 18-for-29 for 232 yards, 2 touchdowns and 4 sacks (6.0 yards per attempt) — his footwork still betrayed him quite a bit during the game, and he misfired on quite a few passes. Oklahoma’s pass rush is fearsome, but Indiana’s defense ranks seventh in sack rate, and with almost no blitzing. The Hoosiers generate pressure and clog passing lanes, and they held Oregon’s Dante Moore and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin to 5.1 yards per dropback with 11 sacks, 2 touchdowns and 3 picks. Bama will be an underdog for a reason.
But kudos to the Tide for getting off the mat. They were lifeless at the start, missing tackles and blocks and looking as unprepared as they did in their season-opening loss to Florida State. But Brooks’ playmaking lit the fuse, and Bama charged back.
