Is 3D cinema set for another big revival? Audience trends and industry moves point in that direction, but it may be fueled by a potentially destructive force: artificial intelligence.
North American 3D ticket sales jumped 34% from May, June and July 2024 to the same period this year, according to RealD’s study of comScore data. With formats like RealD 3D, 4DX and IMAX 3D dominating premium exhibition, seven of the top ten new releases from May to July made a combined $222 million on 3D screens, or 13% of all tickets sold.
The upward trend reflects moviegoers’ willingness to pay a pricey $18.51 for an average 3D ticket, around $4 more than 2D, per RealD/comScore. It bodes well for a wide range of films, from James Cameron’s epic “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” coming Dec. 19 from 20th Century Studios, to a restoration of Werner Herzog‘s 2010 arthouse doc “Cave of Forgotten Dreams,” out early next year from the Independent Film Company.
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Rollouts of new laser projection technology are improving issues with screen darkness, if not some viewers’ headaches and nausea. Cameron’s Lightstorm Entertainment is prepping a slate that includes two more “Avatar” sequels (due in 2029 and 2031, respectively), a Billie Eilish 3D concert project and bigger plans to be announced soon. Immersive venues like Cosm in LA and Dallas and the Sphere in Las Vegas are letting audiences experience old films in a spectacular new way. And event cinema is drawing more crowds to theaters. Add in AI technology that could dramatically lower 2D to 3D conversion costs, and a flood of new and first-time-in-3D revivals could be coming soon to a multiplex near you.
Imax Theaters president Mark Welton says the Imax 3D format “is an important part of us,” but he downplays its North American impact. “Demand is very strong in the international markets, especially Asia-Pacific over the last few years,” he says. Partly in response to this, domestic studios are stepping up their game. “They’re putting more thought behind [3D],” says AMC Theatres senior VP Ryan Wood. “For example, when ‘How to Train Your Dragon’ was coming, a lot of 3D was in their initial marketing.”
But another 3D renaissance — following the format’s early 20th century introduction, ’50s heyday and post-2009 boom after “Avatar’s” $2.9 billion success — would have to overcome several hurdles. For starters, 3D home video systems and Blu-ray/DVD releases have all but dried up in the age of streaming, virtually eliminating ancillary revenue from the format.
Cameron’s $2.3 billion-grossing “Avatar: The Way of Water” from 2022 — returning for a week on Oct. 3 — likely inspired the growing number of 3D conversions for big-budget films in select theaters. Official numbers are difficult to come by, but one industry estimate placed a live-action tentpole film’s conversion cost at around $15 million in the early 2010s. In recent years, fierce competition, consolidation and more overseas labor brought that down to around $5 million. So studios are mainly placing safe bets on franchise films, including late 2025 entries “Tron: Ares,” “Predator: Badlands,” “Wicked: For Good,” “The SpongeBob Movie: Search for Squarepants” and “Zootopia 2.”
The market contraction for original IP in 3D can also be felt at film festivals. Compared to an era with big-budget New York Film Festival premieres like Martin Scorsese’s 2011 fantasy “Hugo” and Ang Lee’s 2012 adventure “Life of Pi,” the only 3D film in this year’s Toronto lineup is Blake Williams’ experimental short “Felt.” And the only 3D feature playing at any top fall fest is a 15th anniversary 6K restoration of Werner Herzog’s “Cave of Forgotten Dreams,” unveiled Sept. 1 at the Telluride Film Festival.
At a spry 82 years old, Herzog just received a lifetime achievement award in Venice and has two new features — the Kate and Rooney Mara-led “Bucking Fastard” and the doc “Ghost Elephants” — plus two new books. The German auteur’s “Cave” presents the oldest-known paintings in the world with his distinctive, sometimes deadpan narration.
“To me, it looks almost like a new film,” he says. “The [epilogue] about radioactive albino mutant crocodiles, which is where the film goes completely wild, into the realm of poetry, fantasy and illusion, is so wonderful. To see that in such a good 3D rendering makes me very happy.” But he’s less pleased about the possibility of his other docs and features being converted to 3D.
“For God’s sake, don’t touch my movies! Let them be 2D,” Herzog exclaims, saying he has no plans to film a feature in 3D again. “But let’s assume I’m going to be on a spacecraft to Mars. We’ll never colonize Mars with a million people — that’s a pipe dream, a delusion and an obscenity — but we’ll eventually have a few astronauts up on Mars. I would love to be among them, to have a 3D camera with me and do daily reports in 3D.”
Mars trips aside, Outsyders CEO Paul Becker has the opposite view on reformatting old 2D films. After key positions at 3D conversion house DNEG in recent years, he co-founded Outsyders in early 2024. It’s one of a few new companies with a business plan hinging on machine learning — a branch of artificial intelligence — for 3D conversions, which can reduce costs to a small fraction of current pricing. “What I’m working on with the studios is: We can get this to be very cheap, but [they] have to invest in it” to operate on a larger scale. “What’s going to work are new alliances that aren’t project-specific.”
As seen on Labor Day weekend, when “Jaws” came in second at the box office with nearly $10 million, “a studio’s value is not the current films they’re making; it’s their archives,” Becker says. “They need to think about machine learning technology, so we’ll be able to see every movie ever made on screens in 3D …. This format is effectively future-proofing films, because [with future VR goggles], everything will be in 3D. If you don’t have that content, you’re not going to make as much money.” And in the short term, Becker thinks it would get more baby boomers to return to theaters, even for 3D romcoms.
That’s music to the ears of RealD CEO Elizabeth Frank, whose company has installed its 3D platform on more than 30,000 screens in 75 countries. Frank is hoping distribs will provide them with more new content. “[It’s] the most profitable premium format that exhibitors and studios have, because consumers are willing to pay almost a third more for a ticket. The technology, license fees and business model are very exhibitor-friendly, yet it’s fallen off their radar. So, in the reintroduction of the existing business to our partners, there’s a real opportunity to have more showtimes and marketing to capture consumer interest.”
There’s a good chance you’ve already seen machine learning in action onscreen. Outsyders first tested its technology by converting Imax’s doc “The Blue Angels,” released in January. “It was shocking how much work could be done through machine learning,” Becker says. “We were able to get the show done with exponentially less manual labor, put really talented artists on it and [have] a lot more time to focus on the creative.” His 50-person staff later worked on Disney’s live-action and CGI remake of “Lilo & Stitch,” which has grossed more than $1 billion worldwide, including $55 million in 3D from May to July in North America alone. He’s now doing late-stage work on Disney’s “Tron: Ares,” out Oct. 10.
As for AI taking jobs from people in the industry, Becker says he understands their concerns, but emphasizes that he’s hiring people. “I’m bringing in all the people that my co-founders and I worked with before [who] were being held back by technology and/or budgets.”
But in addition to the ethical issue of taking jobs from post-production workers, Herzog’s objection to converting his work raises more questions: will filmmakers have their work changed to 3D or other formats without their consent? “Late Fame” director Kent Jones selected Ang Lee’s 2016 3D drama “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” for NYFF when he was the fest’s director, and he has some thoughts.
“Why stop at film? Why don’t they grab images of every painting in the world and make those three-dimensional, too? That’s one thing that’s been missing from romcoms: 3D,” he jokes. “The idea that every new technological ‘advancement’ that comes along is progress is just ridiculous, because all it’s about is commerce.”
