Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
We can take some educated guesses based on coaches film, meaningful data, healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Bijan Robinson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Trey Benson takes over as Arizona’s lead running back in a tough matchup. He’s a good fit for their gap scheme run game and seems big enough to plow through weak tackle attempts for extra yardage. While Benson’s very much a big-play waiting to happen, he hasn’t shown consistently good vision nor does he routinely make defenders miss with his jukes. It also doesn’t help that the Cardinals offensive line has been up and down this year. All that said, opportunity is king in Fantasy Football and Benson should get a lot of it on a short week, even if it’s versus a Seahawks run defense yielding just 3.2 yards per rush (2.8 against gap-scheme runs) with zero touchdowns allowed on the ground. That’s tough, but I wouldn’t rule out Benson making plays as a receiver — he has seven catches in his past two games and was Arizona’s main third-down back when James Conner was healthy. … Kyler Murray had 22 Fantasy points in his last game against Seattle, 19.8 in the two prior. He’s been over 20 Fantasy points twice in his last six meetings with them.
I’m interested to see how the Cardinals generate pass rush pressure against the Seahawks. They tend to not blitz much and play a lot of zone coverage behind, which could end up being conducive to Sam Darnold’s game. He’s clearly worse when pressured (63% catchable pass rate when pressured this year compared to 93.6% when not). Seattle’s offensive line has improved its pass rush pressure rate allowed each week this year; this doesn’t figure to be a tough challenge for them, even if they’re on the road. It’s not enough to make Darnold a good start, he’s more of a desperation starter. Also, Cooper Kupp’s target per route run rate and average depth of target have been way lower against zone coverage compared to man-to-man this month. … Kenneth Walker III played 75% of the snaps last week and scored twice but had a miserable 2.4-yard average against the Saints. The lack of explosiveness when he changed directions that I saw in Week 1 was back, as was a tiny, tiny bit of hesitation on some of his first-half runs. Hand-in-hand with that was some untimely blocking by his offensive line. Both issues improved in the third quarter even when the Saints knew the Seahawks were running the ball with a huge lead. It’s that kind of play plus the return of Zach Charbonnet (who played more snaps than Walker in Weeks 1 and 2) that keep me from having a lot of confidence in Walker this week. The Cardinals are top-12 in defensive rush EPA, rush success rate allowed and yards before contact per rush allowed.
MUST-STARTS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Trey McBride, Kenneth Walker III (No. 2 RB)
STARTS: Trey Benson (No. 2 RB), Seahawks DST
FLEX: Marvin Harrison Jr., Zach Charbonnet (low-end flex if active)
SITS: Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp, Michael Wilson, Cardinals DST
Carson Wentz was solid last week in a blowout win over the Bengals, but he was hardly blitzed and his short-area targets, namely his tight ends, were open. The Steelers have routinely blitzed at a 40%-plus rate in each game this year with eight sacks (five last week), but they got smashed by tight end Hunter Henry last week, often leaving him free in coverage because of busts or because they played heavy zone and allowed short throws to go his way. Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson didn’t look pretty running around but he did take advantage of a good matchup last week (6/5-49-1) and could be decent again this week. What keeps me from ranking him higher is the return of Jordan Addison, who has been awesome when used as a short- and intermediate-area target, and the emergence of Jordan Mason’s strong running. Both factors could limit Hockenson (and Wentz’s) volume; especially since the Steelers run defense, while improved last week due to some fresh faces, has given up 4.2 yards per rush to RBs with a third-worst 11.7% explosive rush rate allowed through three weeks.
MUST-STARTS: Justin Jefferson
STARTS: Jordan Mason, T.J. Hockenson (borderline starter), Vikings DST
FLEX: DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren, Jordan Addison (low-end flex)
SITS: Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Austin III, Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, Kenneth Gainwell, Zavier Scott, Jalen Nailor, Adam Thielen, Steelers DST
Michael Penix Jr. was tough to watch last week — he air-mailed several throws and was late getting the ball out on others. No one’s trusting him in Fantasy leagues unless they’re out of options, but Drake London’s 5.9 and 10.5 PPR points in his past two games were the price Fantasy managers paid for Penix’s troubles. London hasn’t been running a lot of deep routes and when he has he’s rarely targeted (four in three games), and when he’s targeted the pass is not accurate (zero catches). The good news is that Washington has allowed a 78.1% catch rate to all receivers on throws inside of 15 air yards for 9.7 yards per catch and three red-zone scores (two last week). The bad news is that while Washington just gave up a monster game to Tre Tucker last week, but every single other receiver they’ve taken on, including Malik Nabers and Jakobi Meyers, scored well under 15 PPR points. I’d lower the ceiling for London.
MUST-STARTS: Bijan Robinson
STARTS: Drake London (No. 2 WR at best), Zach Ertz (low-end TE), Commanders DST (low-end DST)
FLEX: Deebo Samuel (borderline No. 2/3 WR), Jacory Croskey-Merritt
SITS: Marcus Mariota, Michael Penix Jr., Kyle Pitts (high-end No. 2 TE), Darnell Mooney, Jeremy McNichols, Chris Rodriguez, Tyler Allgeier, Falcons DST
I don’t think it’ll matter how much the Saints blitz or not, they rank second-worst in pass rush pressure rate and only came up with five sacks in Week 1 because Kyler Murray held the ball too long. Josh Allen will have all sorts of opportunities to throw, it’s just a matter of how much he’ll have to. James Cook will run into a Saints defense that did a nice job attacking Kenneth Walker last week and Christian McCaffrey the week before. He’ll still get good numbers, but maybe there are some chances for a 25-to-30 attempt game for Allen. The Saints have allowed at least one receiver to get 18-plus PPR points in each game this year, usually a physical, high-volume non-slot wideout (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jauan Jennings, Marvin Harrison Jr.). Keon Coleman fits that profile best of any Bills receiver. … As for Dalton Kincaid, he’s looked great so far this season. His 5.3 targets per game aren’t great but a modest 6.9 ADOT with a cool 6.2 yards after the catch per reception are. The Saints let up 12.1 PPR points to Trey McBride in the season opener and 16.6 PPR points to 49ers tight ends Luke Farrell and Jake Tonges in Week 2.
MUST-STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook
STARTS: Alvin Kamara (No. 2 RB), Juwan Johnson, Dalton Kincaid, Bills DST
FLEX: Keon Coleman (No. 3 WR), Chris Olave (high-end No. 3 WR in PPR), Rashid Shaheed (low-end flex)
SITS: Spencer Rattler, Khalil Shakir, Josh Palmer, Ray Davis, Kendre Miller, Saints DST
Here’s a trend that depresses me as a Jameson Williams manager: Williams’ target per route run rate is lower against man coverage (4.3%) than zone coverage (15.1%). Both of those numbers stink, and the trend goes back to last year, too. It means Jared Goff looks much more often at Amon-Ra St. Brown (an astonishing 41.7% target per route run rate versus man) than Williams or even Sam LaPorta (8.7% versus man this year). The Browns have played more man-to-man coverage than any other defense. I’d be nervous starting Williams; LaPorta is tougher to sit but his numbers have been lean lately, plus the Browns have been mostly good against tight ends.
MUST-STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Quinshon Judkins (borderline No. 2/3 RB), Sam LaPorta (middle-end TE), Lions DST (at Cincy in Week 5)
FLEX: David Montgomery, Jameson Williams (low-end flex)
SITS: Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy, Harold Fannin Jr., David Njoku, Jerome Ford, Isaac TeSlaa, Browns DST
At 37.7%, Houston’s offensive line isn’t even close to allowing the most pass rush pressure through three weeks (the Jets lead the league at 50%). That’s not the big reason why Stroud has struggled — he himself is. He owns the fourth-highest off-target rate of any qualifying QB, and he’s actually had a higher off-target rate (15%) when not pressured compared to when he is (13.8%). Stroud’s also been putrid in the red zone with a 28.6% completion rate (only Russell Wilson was worse) and a stone-worst -1.21 EPA per dropback with no touchdowns. It doesn’t help that the Texans have run the fewest red-zone plays — 13! — this season. This week he’ll see a Titans defense that’s blitzed at the sixth-lowest rate and has two sacks through three games. Maybe that’ll help Stroud get out of his funk, but until it happens the only Texans player you can start is Nico Collins on the hope he gets double-digit targets again.
MUST-STARTS: Nico Collins
STARTS: Texans DST
FLEX: Tony Pollard
SITS: C.J. Stroud, Cam Ward, Elic Ayomanor (low-end flex), Calvin Ridley, Nick Chubb, Tyjae Spears (stash!), Woody Marks (stash), Christian Kirk (stash), Jayden Higgins, Dalton Schultz, Titans DST
We’ve already seen Drake Maye lean on Hunter Henry in 2 of 3 games, expect him to do it again against the Panthers. Carolina has played heavy zone coverage this season — with excellent play from their cornerbacks. It’s the Panthers’ pass rush that leaves a lot to be desired as they don’t blitz much and have had a sad pass rush pressure rate in two of three games. Maye’s at his best when he’s got time to throw and facing zone coverage, so this matchup should be a good one for him. And it’s not bad for Henry either as Brenton Strange and Trey McBride each had at least 9.9 PPR points against Carolina this year; Kyle Pitts would have had more than 7.9 last week but his quarterback fell apart. Maye should look to Henry again for more completions, especially since his coverage won’t be a tight as other wide receivers on the Patriots. That’s what happened last week.
STARTS: Drake Maye, Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillan, Hunter Henry, Patriots DST (low-end starter)
FLEX: Rhamondre Stevenson
SITS: Bryce Young, TreVeyon Henderson (for maybe one more week), Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Demario Douglas, Antonio Gibson, Hunter Renfrow, Rico Dowdle, Jalen Coker (IR stash!), Panthers DST
Jaxson Dart might be rushed to the starting lineup, but he was a quality prospect whom I got to know at the Senior Bowl, and his college film was more good than bad. I love the gunslinger mentality, the quick release and good velocity, the mobility and willingness to run, the red-zone efficiency and his anticipation as a thrower. I’m worried about how he’ll handle the blitz (he did not handle it well last year) and how he’ll decipher coverages. Through three weeks the Chargers have played a lot of heavy zone coverage and really only blitzed a lot in the second half of last week’s game against the Broncos — and didn’t really succeed (one second-half sack). Bo Nix was close to hitting three separate deep passes, something that will absolutely stand out on film to the Giants and Malik Nabers. The Chargers also got gashed for 6.5 yards per run by Denver’s running backs last week, allowing a run of 10-plus yards on 23.1% of their carries. That’s very significant as they’ve struggled there since losing Khalil Mack to injury. It opens the door for Cam Skattebo to keep churning as he did last week against the Chiefs.
MUST-STARTS: Malik Nabers
STARTS: Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Cam Skattebo, Ladd McConkey (No. 2 WR), Chargers DST
FLEX: Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston (both high-end flexes), Wan’Dale Robinson (PPR flex)
SITS: Jaxson Dart (stash), Oronde Gadsden (deep stash), Theo Johnson, Devin Singletary, Giants DST
The Eagles run game ran out of steam last week, but the pass game came out of the casket like the Undertaker meme. I’ve tracked A.J. Brown all season and he clearly looked like his old self last week. More importantly, Jalen Hurts looked like his old self as a thrower. They may need a repeat performance in Week 4 as the Bucs have not let up more than 3.8 yards per rush to running backs in a game yet this year. Against the pass it’s a different story: Tampa Bay is pretty much average except in yards after catch allowed — 6.3 per reception, which is third-most in the league. Getting his pass-catchers out in space will be crucial for Hurts to have a good game.
Philadelphia’s defense has been rocked by injuries over the past week: edge rusher Nolan Smith and cornerback Jakorian Bennett both went on injured reserve. Bennett had taken over for Adoree Jackson at corner when he got hurt. Even if Jackson plays, whoever lines up opposite Quinyon Mitchell is going to get a lot of attention from Baker Mayfield. Smith’s absence thins out a pass rush that had generated much of its pressure from its D-line to begin with. It helps the Bucs, who have been ravaged by injuries of their own along the offensive line. Vic Fangio’s defense did try kicking its blitz rate up a notch last week against the Rams and it didn’t help them — they have three sacks all season. Last year against Fangio’s Eagles we saw Mayfield complete 30 of 47 passes for 347 yards and two scores, finishing with 32.9 Fantasy points. Not having Mike Evans will sting, but he worked around that last week on low volume; this week he should end up throwing a good amount.
MUST-STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, A.J. Brown
STARTS: Baker Mayfield (low-end starter), Emeka Egbuka (No. 2 WR), DeVonta Smith (low-end No. 2 WR)
SITS: Dallas Goedert (high-end No. 2 TE), Sterling Shepard, Rachaad White, Chris Godwin (will change if he’s active), Cade Otton (desperation starter), Jahan Dotson, Ryan Miller, Eagles DST (borderline starter), Buccaneers DST
The Rams blitzed on 37.8% of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks last week. It’s rare for them to blitz that much, and yet I’d be shocked if the Rams didn’t do the same thing to Daniel Jones in Week 4. Jones has been spectacular except when pressured: His completion rate dropped from 79.4% to 52%, his off-target rate has essentially doubled from 7.9% to 16%, his yards per attempt average sank 3.0 yards and he has yet to throw a touchdown when under duress. The film does show plenty of plays where Jones connects in spite of defenders getting near him, but it’s really been good pass protection from his team that’s helped him maximize his play. If Jones has an edge it’s in the matchups his pass-catchers have against the Rams cornerbacks, but he’s going to have to beat the blitz in order for it to pay off. That might be asking for too much — I’d consider other options.
MUST-STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
STARTS: Tyler Warren, Rams DST (low-end starting DST)
FLEX: Michael Pittman (high-end PPR flex)
SITS: Matthew Stafford and Daniel Jones (both high-end No. 2 QBs), Josh Downs (low-end flex), Blake Corum (stash), Colts DST
If the Jaguars were taking on a dominant opponent it would be easy to just sit Brian Thomas Jr. and wait for a better week. But the 49ers lost Nick Bosa, their best pass rusher, so it should turn a bad matchup more neutral for Trevor Lawrence & Co. Will it help Thomas? Look, his speed isn’t an issue but his hands and timing with Lawrence are. He dropped another pass last week, there were at least two plays last week where Thomas wasn’t in the right place for a throw from Lawrence, and there were others where Thomas got open and Lawrence threw elsewhere. Three receivers have had 11-plus PPR points against the 49ers so far this season, but two had at least 10 targets. And while Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t have a big game last week, he was close to it had he held onto the football a couple of times on downfield throws. Point is, this is a secondary that shouldn’t be feared nor a pass rush that should threaten Lawrence. There’s a chance Thomas could come through if he can just hold on to the football a couple of times. You should start him with lowered expectations.
MUST-STARTS: Christian McCaffrey
STARTS: Travis Etienne, Ricky Pearsall, Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 2 WR)
FLEX: Bhayshul Tuten (low-end non-PPR flex)
SITS: Brock Purdy (high-end No. 2 QB), Trevor Lawrence, Brenton Strange (desperation PPR TE), Parker Washington (desperation flex), Travis Hunter, Brian Robinson Jr., Kendrick Bourne, Jake Tonges, 49ers DST, Jaguars DST
Everyone knows after Monday night that the Ravens run defense was mauled on the ground to the tune of 6.4 yards per rush by Detroit’s running backs, but the Chiefs have been bottom-five in total rush yards and total rushes with zero explosive RB runs on the year. Taking pressure off of Patrick Mahomes with the run game makes sense, but the Chiefs have failed to do it and may not be able to even against a surprisingly challenged Ravens run defense. It will then come down to how much pass rush pressure the Ravens can get on Mahomes. That’s a problem — the Ravens have really only blitzed a lot when they’ve trailed in games, and even when they do get pressure they fail to sack the quarterback. Mahomes hasn’t been great throwing the ball — he owns the highest off-target rate of any qualifying quarterback this season at 21%, and he has three passing touchdowns through three weeks. It doesn’t help that Mahomes has 18 or fewer Fantasy points in each of his past two against the Ravens (both Chiefs wins).
MUST-STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry
STARTS: Patrick Mahomes (low-end No. 1 QB), Zay Flowers (No. 2 WR), Mark Andrews, Ravens DST
FLEX: Tyquan Thornton (low-end flex), Marquise Brown (low-end PPR flex)
SITS: DeAndre Hopkins, Rashod Bateman, Travis Kelce (high-end No. 2 TE), Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, Brashard Smith, Justice Hill, Chiefs DST
Las Vegas’ biggest issue is its offensive line. When they’ve been overmatched the whole offense has struggled, but when they haven’t been overmatched the whole offense has shined. Geno Smith uncorked some impressive throws last week (and in Week 1) when his line was fine. Ashton Jeanty ripped off some quality runs last week. Chicago’s played more zone coverage without its top cornerbacks on the field, its pass rush only generated some movement last week because the Cowboys were down a starter amongst its front five and didn’t have CeeDee Lamb to scare them off, and its run defense was gashed by the Lions and Cowboys in consecutive weeks, notably allowing 3.22 yards before contact per rush, a tell-tale sign that their D-line isn’t doing enough to push back against opposing offensive lines. I’ve got some hope that the Raiders offense does well in a favorable matchup.
MUST STARTS: Rome Odunze, Brock Bowers
STARTS: Caleb Williams, Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty (No. 2 RB), Jakobi Meyers
FLEX: D’Andre Swift, D.J. Moore, Tre Tucker (low-end flex)
SITS: Luther Burden III, Olamide Zaccheaus, Cole Kmet, Kyle Monangai, Dont’e Thornton, Bears DST, Raiders DST
Against the supposed lowly Chicago Bears pass rush last week the Cowboys allowed a 40.5% pass rush pressure rate with Dak Prescott on the field. Chicago upped their blitz rate to a still-low-but-high-for-them 25.5% to help land the high rate, likely because they felt good about their defensive plan once CeeDee Lamb was off the field. After the game, starting guard Tyler Booker joined center Cooper Beebe on the injured list, leaving the Cowboys offensive line in more trouble. It only gets worse as the Packers are top five in pass rush pressure rate (45%) and sacks (10) for the season. And they’re doing it without blitzing much. Green Bay has also held all but one wide receiver to under 10 PPR points this season, a list that includes Terry McLaurin, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and everyone on the Browns. Deebo Samuel had 17.4 PPR points thanks in large part to a garbage-time touchdown in Week 2. Tight ends have fared much better, especially in PPR, so Dallas’ best Fantasy option among its pass catchers for the week might be Jake Ferguson.
MUST-STARTS: Josh Jacobs
STARTS: Jordan Love, Javonte Williams (No. 2 RB), Jake Ferguson, George Pickens (borderline No. 2/3 WR), Tucker Kraft, Packers DST
SITS: Dak Prescott, Matthew Golden (desperation flex), Dontayvion Wicks (stash), Romeo Doubs, Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin, Miles Sanders, Emanuel Wilson, Cowboys DST
The Jets have some defensive issues: Tackle machine Quincy Williams is on injured reserve, as is his backup Marcelino McCrary-Ball. It might mean a rookie starts there. In the secondary, new outside cornerback Brandon Stephens has been awful in coverage and nickelback Michael Carter II has been a liability as well. They’re also struggling to get pressure on the quarterback, ranking fourth-worst in pass rush pressure rate while calling blitzes at a top-10 rate. All of this makes for a really good matchup for Tua Tagovailoa, who’s still getting the ball out quick but not quite as quick as last year. That’s a good thing since it gives his receivers more time to separate. He’s also been very efficient in the red zone on the rare occasions when the Dolphins have been there. Tyreek Hill figures to see a lot of Sauce Gardner in coverage, which is a small problem you’ll ignore when you set your lineup, but the rest of the receiving group for Miami should do well.
MUST-STARTS: De’Von Achane
STARTS: Tyreek Hill (borderline No. 1/2 WR), Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall,
FLEX: Jaylen Waddle (No. 3 WR)
SITS: Tua Tagovailoa (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Tyrod Taylor (assuming he starts), Ollie Gordon II (stash), Braelon Allen, Darren Waller (stash), Dolphins DST, Jets DST
Bo Nix was so close to a huge game last week as he overshot Marvin Mims on two deep balls and Courtland Sutton on another, off by maybe a yard on each of them. Nix also seemed a little too jumpy in the pocket as the Chargers got over a 40% pass rush pressure rate on him. Luckily, Nix faces a Bengals defense that hasn’t blitzed much and is ninth-worst in pass rush pressure rate. A comfortable Nix has proven to be a good thing — in 14 career games when he’s been pressured under 33% of his dropbacks, Nix has delivered at least 20 Fantasy points nine times with six of those being 26-plus points. That includes a 27.9 banger in a Week 17 loss at Cincinnati last year.
MUST-STARTS: Ja’Marr Chase
STARTS: Bo Nix, JK Dobbins (No. 2 RB), Courtland Sutton (high-end No. 2 WR), Tee Higgins (borderline No. 2/3 WR), Broncos DST
FLEX: Chase Brown
SITS: Jake Browning, Troy Franklin (stash), R.J. Harvey (stash), Marvin Mims, Tahj Brooks, Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant, Evan Engram, Bengals DST
