With eight months to go until the 2026 World Cup kicks off at the Estadio Azteca, the stakes are ratcheting up in qualifiers across the world. Africa’s first round, in which six spots are to be filled, concludes during this break from the club season while two more spots are up for grabs in Asia. There is no such finality to games in Europe and North America just yet, but there is altogether less room for slip ups for some of the biggest sides in the sport… and indeed for some of the smallest nations.
Here, then, are five games that could be among the most crucial in the race for one of the 45 qualification spots in north America next summer.
1. Northern Ireland vs. Germany, Monday Oct. 13, 2:45 p.m. ET
Even if there is a backdoor route to North America through second round playoffs in which Germany are guaranteed a place, the condensing of European qualification into four team groups has thrown a smidgen more variance into UEFA’s equation. Put simply, one bad result is much less of a big deal when you’ve got seven or nine games to shake it off rather than five.
That much is apparent to Germany, whose first ever loss on the road in a World Cup qualifier last month has had them playing catch up ever since. Their conquerors Slovakia could have pulled away, but defeat to Northern Ireland at Windsor Park on Friday night means Group A is fascinatingly set with all three aforementioned teams on six points, each with three games left to play. The Germans are, of course, heavy favorites to top the table and did not have to overexert themselves in running four past a Luxembourg side.
Then again, Northern Ireland, who last reached the World Cup 39 years ago, could be a tough out. They are arguably not as replete with top league talent as the squad that went to Euro 2016, let alone Monday’s opponents, but this is a team that doesn’t give up easy openings, and their average of 1.3 xG allowed per game is not bad considering that one of those matches was against Germany. It took a double salvo around the 72nd minute for Julian Nagelsmann’s side to pull away in Cologne, at Windsor Park they are sure to find an opponent riled up by comments the Germany boss made about their style of play.
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Should Northern Ireland hold firm in Belfast and Slovakia beat a faltering Luxembourg at home then suddenly Group A would be totally up for grabs. Germany has never failed to qualify for a World Cup and they probably won’t this time. However, with only three games to go their margin for error could be razor thin.
2. Nigeria vs. Benin, Tuesday Oct. 14, 12 p.m. ET
No matter how much the World Cup expands, it does not seem to make CAF qualifying any easier. Admittedly Nigeria may not have made it easy on themselves, a side that is overloaded with attacking talent such as Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman has scored just 11 goals in nine qualifiers. Fail to score two in a win against Benin, managed by the Super Eagles’ former boss Gernot Rohr, and they will pay the price for that profligacy. One of the great powers of African football will miss a second World Cup in succession.
Even a win does not guarantee qualification for Nigeria. South Africa would have that if they had not fielded an ineligible player against Lesotho, a 2-0 win becoming a 3-0 loss as punishment. Only Bafana Bafana failing to win at home to eliminated Rwanda would give Nigeria a shot at top spot. That in itself would be a miraculous turnaround given that Nigeria had just three points from their first four qualifiers in Group C. Even since then they have been dicing with danger, drawing at home to Zimbabwe and away to South Africa.
“We feel the pressure since March,” said head coach Eric Cheli after Friday’s 2-1 win in Lesotho. “Every time my players come to camp, they feel the pressure because it’s important for Nigeria to be at the World Cup. We have a lot of pressure.”
3. Qatar vs. United Arab Emirates, Tuesday Oct. 14, 1 p.m. ET
Asian qualification is also accelerating towards its conclusion and is doing so in contentious fashion. After the six top teams across three groups qualified in phase three, the next six moved into the final round, a two group, three game shootout for top spot, the runners-up going into one final home and away match to secure a spot in the inter-continental playoffs. Complicated enough? It seems it right and perhaps the AFC felt they were simplifying things by playing each group in one country.
Certainly it was a welcome decision for Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who are hosting all their games on home soil, as well as the remaining qualifier. For their opponents, not so much. “You know the qualifiers are being played in Qatar’s home,” said Carlos Queiroz, Oman head coach. “We are playing on three days’ rest, Qatar with six days. If this is all about fair play for the people who made this decision, then I do not have any comments. I’ve worked for 40 years in football and this is not fair play for me.”
Still the sense of indignation might have spurred the Omanis on, a 0-0 draw putting the pressure on hosts Qatar, who will have to make the most of their extra rest come Tuesday. The equation will at least be clear for them after Oman’s clash with the UAE in Al Rayyan, but Qatar are now winless in their last five. They can ill afford letting that record slip to six.
4. Italy vs. Israel, Tuesday Oct. 14, 2:45 p.m. ET
Even with the politics set aside, there is no group in European World Cup qualifying that has been as dramatic as I, where Norway’s heavy win over Italy early in qualifying set the stage for two critical clashes between Italy and Israel, the latter having developed significantly at age group level with deep runs at European Championships and World Cups. September’s meeting went Italy’s way in dramatic fashion, two goals in the last eight minutes giving Israel hope of a crucial point before Sandro Tonali struck at the death.
At the time of writing a top two spot is now firmly in Italy’s grasp as they bid to end their 12 year absence from the World Cup and in reality a point in Udine would probably be fine for Gennaro Gattuso’s side, who would then secure a head to head advantage and be able to stretch their advantage away in Moldova in the penultimate round of games.
5. Curacao vs. Trinidad & Tobago, Tuesday Oct. 14, 7 p.m. ET
Automatic qualification for hosts Mexico, Canada and the United States makes CONCACAF qualifying particularly intriguing. Would Curacao, who last played in the final round of confederation qualifying in 1974 as the Netherlands Antilles, have had much of a chance of making a World Cup when the continent’s big beasts were in the process? Whatever the truth of that, the island nation of a little over 150,000 have every possibility right now.
With Guus Hiddink at the helm, the Blue Family are unbeaten in their first three matches in Group B and stunned Jamaica in Willemstad on Friday night, a 2-0 win securing top spot ahead of Trinidad & Tobago’s visit on Tuesday. Securing Dutch players with family heritage off the coast of South America has given Curucao a squad that deserves to be taken seriously, one that includes familiar names to Eredivisie and EFL watchers including Jurgen Locadia, Leandro Bacuna and Tahith Chong, the latter missing from the current squad due to injury.
So far the least populous country to reach the World Cup is Iceland, whose population was just 335,000 when they made it in 2018. That Curacao has had to look beyond its borders, then, is no surprise. If they were to make the World Cup, their mere presence would be one of the most remarkable stories of the 2026 tournament.
