Key events
Lap 56/56: Shaboozey will be waving the checkered flag.
Norris is now well more than five seconds ahead of Leclerc.
Russell is more than 3.5 behind Piastri.
Bortoleto might pass Gasly now – in fact, he just did.
Lap 55/56: Colapinto ignores team orders and scoots past Gasly.
Lap 54/56: Verstappen is now lapping people.
Norris is nearly 4.5 seconds ahead of Leclerc.
Colapinto (18th) is told to hold positions despite being 0.4 seconds behind Gasly, his teammate. He’s not happy with that. “But he’s slow,” Colapinto says.
Lap 53/56: The Norris lead over Leclerc is now 3.3 seconds. Verstappen is out of sight, of course – 8.5 seconds in front.
The only problem would be if Norris slides outside the track limit. If he gets another 1.5 seconds on Leclerc, a five-second penalty won’t matter.
And that’s likely the last action we’ll have aside from the back five. Alonso is holding on to 10th.
Lap 52/56: Leclerc radio says to keep the pressure on because Norris has three strikes.
But he’s already more than a second ahead. Make it 1.5. Leclerc is going backwards.
Norris passes Leclerc! It all looked so easy there.
And no, Russell still isn’t gaining on Piastri.
Lap 51/56: Norris takes a shot! He tries to get inside, but Leclerc slams the door, and Norris wisely backs off.
Lap 50/56: Reminder – if Norris goes outside the track limits again, he’ll lose five seconds. He can gamble because he has more than 12 seconds on the fading Hamilton, but if he goes for it, he’d better make it work.
Lap 49/56: Make it 1.2 seconds. My goodness. Have Leclerc’s medium tires suddenly fallen apart?
Verstappen is still more than seven seconds ahead.
The commentators have suddenly noticed that Russell is within three seconds of Piastri, but the gap is the same as it was several laps ago. He’s not “gaining.” Not yet, anyway.
Lap 48/56: Well, well, well … Norris is suddenly within 1.6 seconds.
We have five races left. Two of them have sprints. Verstappen could certainly get 120 points or so, for a total of 426. That means Piastri would need 81 – the equivalent of hitting the podium in each race and getting six more points somewhere.
You really can’t like Norris’s chances of holding off Verstappen in the least.
Lap 46/56: Points if these standings hold …
Verstappen 25 (306 on the season)
Leclerc 18 (195)
Norris 15 (329)
Hamilton 12 (142)
Piastri 10 (346)
Russell 8 (252)
Lap 44/56: That said – Verstappen was a little faster than Leclerc on his last lap. Norris is dropping farther behind Leclerc, but Hamilton’s on the same tires behind him and isn’t gaining.
Piastri’s quest to hold fifth is also looking solid.
The big contest coming up will be for 10th, where Alonso has Lawson and Stroll right behind him.
Lap 43/56: It appears Norris wasn’t bluffing. Replay shows him sliding around.
And Verstappen now says he is sliding around a lot.
Leclerc is on mediums. Would we see the rest of the top 10 pit to ditch these underperforming tires, leaving Leclerc to take his second straight win in Texas?
Lap 42/56: Norris says his tires are “gone.” That seems fishy. A bluff? But hew has dropped a bit farther behind Leclerc.
Verstappen is informed that Norris is complaining about his tires, so he should look after his. That 6.8-second gap will make that task easier.
Greatest collapses …
Ger Nugent: “Barça VS Liverpool champions league. Bayern Munich Vs Man U final.”
Mark Woldin objects to the Greg Norman comparison: “That was one day. We have to think of a season. There have been many. But McClaren is not collapsing. Max is great and his car is better than before.”
Nicola Wilson: “Newcastle United Football Club 95/96. McLaren’s antics have taken me back to my 10 year old self… although I’m actually enjoying it. Papaya Ruled too close to the sun.”
Paul Overtoom points out that this race is not done.
Lap 40/56: As you were.
Getting email now …
Lap 38/56: So our top 10, with the potential for changes …
1. Verstappen will win, barring mishap
2. Leclerc – the wild card here is that his medium tires may be better at the end
3. Norris is gaining on Leclerc, so that could be our most significant change
4. Hamilton is by himself
5. Piastri seems OK for now
6. Russell may yet have a chance of getting past Piastri, but he has work to do
7. Tsunoda has nearly wrappup up seventh
8. Hulkenberg has to hold off …
9. Bearman
10. Alonso is well back and may yet be challenged by Lawson, Stroll (medium), Ocon (medium) and the charging Antonelli, who clearly has a ton of pace today and would likely be in the top five if not for his unfortunate spin.
Everyone else is on softs.
Lap 37/57: It’s interesting that Hamilton has emerged nearly 10 seconds behind his teammate Leclerc. Before everyone pitted, he was on Leclerc’s rear wing.
Albon is pitting again. He had the early incident and pitted early, so that’s no surprise. Bortoleto is also pitting for some reason.
Antonelli is up to 14th.
Lap 36/56: Verstappen is pulling away again.
Norris is gaining on Leclerc.
Antonelli wound up 17th again after everyone pitted but has posted the fastest lap again.
Lap 35/56: Hulkenberg fans will be happy to see that he moved up to fifth, but that was pre-pit.
With that, every driver has pitted, and the situation is:
Verstappen – only 5.771 ahead of Leclerc now
Leclerc – medium tires
Norris
Hamilton
Piastri
Russell
Tsunoda
Bearman
Hulkenberg
Albon – medium
Everyone else in the top 10 is on softs.
Bearman tries to pass Tsunoda but locks up. He manages to keep going, and Tsunoda is lucky to have avoided the skidding Bearman. We’ll see if stewards take action against Tsunoda for dodgy defending.
Lap 34/54: Our new leader is George Russell. Don’t get too excited. He hasn’t pitted, while Verstappen has just zipped in and out of the pit lane.
Now Russell will pit.
Lap 33/56: Norris pits. The stop takes nearly four seconds. He comes out nearly four seconds behind Leclerc. Things are shaping up horribly for McLaren here.
Lap 32/56: Hamilton pits. He re-emerges in sixth, once again ahead of Piastri.
Antonelli pits. He did a masterful job of recovering from his early spin.
Leclerc has posted the fastest lap.
Lap 31/56: Piastri pits. He’ll be on soft tires, which will surely be better than the mediums that were letting him down – but for how long?
Russell goes about a mile outside track limits, so maybe his tires are starting to fail.
Lap 30/56: Leclerc gets past Tsunoda into sixth. Tsunoda duly pits.
Piastri tells McLaren he thinks it’d be difficult to go the rest of the way on soft tires. He’s still out there ahead of Russell, but the gap is dropping. The team asks him about undercutting. The nerves in Piastri’s voice are noticeable.
Lap 29/56: Tim Brosnan has a contender for biggest collapse – Greg Norman at the Masters. Good choice. I should be able to come up with a soccer equivalent at some point, but it’s escaping my brain so far.
Lap 28/56: We’re at the halfway point, and Russell is slowly gaining on Piastri. Can McLaren hold out a little longer before changing tires?
The only driver in the top 10 who has pitted is Leclerc, who is ninth. Oops – eighth. Make it seventh, as he passes Bearman.
Verstappen’s team tells him to make his tires last a bit longer. Must be nice to have a 10-second cushion.
Lap 27/56: Standings at the moment …
1. Verstappen
2. Norris (more than 11 seconds back)
3. Hamilton (more than five seconds back of Norris)
4. Piastri
5. Russell (still nearly two seconds back)
6. Tsunoda
7. Bearman
8. Leclerc (just passed Hulkenberg)
9. Hulkenberg
10. Alonso
11. Lawson
12. Stroll
13. Gasly
14. Antonelli
15. Colapinto
16. Albon
17. Hajduk
18. Bortoleto
19. Ocon
(Sainz is out)
Lap 25/56: Leclerc doesn’t seem to be pushing too hard on his new tires, perhaps hinting that he’ll stick with a one-stop strategy and nurse those tires until the end of the race.
Lap 24/56: Leclerc comes out of the pits in ninth. Norris has nothing but clean air ahead of him because Verstappen is more than 10 seconds in front, but how long with the tires hold?
Hamilton is third but isn’t gaining ground.
Lap 22/56: McLaren’s pit crew gets on the radio to let Norris know about the track-limits warning. “I know, I know, I know,” says Norris.
Now someone else is trying to pass Leclerc, and it’s his teammate, Lewis Hamilton! Leclerc defends with near-reckless zeal, and Ferrari has seen enough, telling him to pit so he can get rid of those soft tires.
And as I type that, Norris whips past Leclerc on a straightaway and leaves Leclerc nothing going into the turn.
Lap 21/56: Norris pulls within a car length of Leclerc, but he’s clearly chastened by his track-limits warnings – now one away from a five-second penalty – and doesn’t make a serious effort to pass.
