Inside the Lines Chiefs-Chargers prop cheat sheet: Patrick Mahomes INT, Ladd McConkey TD, Xavier Worthy TD

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can visit SportsLine for our model’s main market bets (spread, total, money line) but if you are looking for ALL our personal best bets for free, check out our recently launched Inside the Lines blog. For Chiefs-Chargers Week 1 these are the 3 of the 15 projection based values that standout below.

As far as the main markets go we have a slight lean for LAC to cover +3 (50%, 4% push) with under 45.5 points (56%) based on an average simulation score of KC 22.5, LAC 20.5. The reason why we are so confident in the accuracy of our futures picks (like Chiefs Under 11.5 wins) is because our model is 90% in line with oddsmakers’ main market lines. 

We also have no value for the starting running backs in this game. My favorite 3 player props are below. The best priced lines at the time of publishing are listed and while we are surprised if you can find a better line since most steam in our direction, but you may end up finding worse lines than the ones reported here.

Bet Chiefs vs. Chargers at DraftKings, where new users get $300 in bonus bets instantly and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Click here:

Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Pass INT (-103 at BetRivers)

Mahomes is averaging 0.7 INTs per sim which translates to roughly a 60% chance of throwing at least one which is solid value vs the just over 50% than -103 implies. Mahomes has not been Mahomes-like the last 2 seasons but expect him to be more aggressive throwing downfield this season. But he does not have weapons that compare to when he had peak Tyreek Hill from ’18-’22 with Rashee Rice suspended, Hollywood Brown questionable and Travis Kelce declining.

His line is very low because he did not throw a pick from 11/24 through the AFC Championship game. But he had 2 picks in the Super Bowl. He also started with a pick in his first 6 games of ’24. He had a high INT rate to start 2023 going 7-4 over 0.5 in their first 11 games. 

The Chiefs need the upside of “YOLO” Mahomes stretching the defense and the upside is worth it even if it means an “arm punt” on 2nd and long.

Xavier Worthy Yes Anytime TD (+140 DraftKings)

I love when players are priced like they are “normal” for their position. In this case, Worthy as a WR being priced primarily based on what percentage of passing TDs they can expect then adjusted for team total. Worthy scored a receiving touchdown in 42% of his games last season (including playoffs), which is what +137 implies. But Andy Reid from Day 1 also schemed how to use Worthy’s speed to score three rushing touchdowns. When you combine extra targets due to Rashee Rice’s suspension and Hollywood Brown’s questionable status with Worthy’s rushing touchdown potential, this is a great bet.  

The best price on this bet was +140 on Caesars a week ago but now that line has steamed down to just +130. It is as low as +115 on other books. You want to ACT NOW on this line while you still can get this much value.

Ladd McConkey Yes Anytime TD (+180 DraftKings)

Justin Herbert’s pass TD production started slowly in Greg Roman’s offense, but once Ladd McConkey broke out he helped Herbert rediscover his mojo. Herbert’s pass TD line is 1.5 heavily juiced under but that reflects his 6 TDs in the first 6 game last season. I think his production the final 11 games (16 pass TDs) is more indicative of how 2025 will go.

McConkey accounted for 35% of team rec TDs as a rookie which was much higher than the 28% of team receptions. The +180 line implies 35.7% so the McConkey ATD line is 1:1 based on his normal % vs Herbert’s 1.1 odds implied line. Our model sees Herbert at more of the 1.35 level which is why we give McConkey a 40%+ chance of scoring.

The Mahomes INT line is -104 on DraftKings so you can parlay that with the two ATDs at +1218. Bet it at DraftKings, where new users get $300 in bonus bets instantly and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

Game Cheat Sheet

We use our proprietary AI to review our projection vs our odds partners’ best prices. This is a list of other good projection based bets for this game.

These are just a fraction of our best bets, which are all free on our new blog. We will be providing our team’s personal best bets for every NFL game during the 2025 season.   

What makes a bet an “Inside the Lines Best Bet?” These are ones where:

1) Best Projection: Our SportsLine Model’s projection shows clear value versus the line and we love certain statistical trends, X’s and O’s and subjective supporting data that supports our side but isn’t directly factored into the model. For example, say we love a running back to go Over 14.5 carries and his backup is projected for 5.5 carries, but the backup is questionable and there’s a chance he can be ruled out, which surely will change our projection to 16.5 (third-stringer gets 3.5) and the line would likely go from 12.5 to 15.5. If we have value on a side and the only unknown factors that will change are in our favor, we’ll consider it our “Best Projection.”

AND

2) Best Price: There is an outlier best price that we should take advantage of before it steams in “our direction.” In most of these cases, the best-priced book is using “standard odds making logic” to set the line, but our team has identified a unique situation where standard odds rules don’t apply. For example, maybe a player is -110 to throw an interception, but in his last three seasons he has averaged just 0.4 interceptions on the road compared to 0.7 at home because the team plays on a fast track at home and averages 5+ more pass attempts at home.

Step 1 provides greater accuracy and Step 2, especially when combined with a nice Profit Boost or Promotion, significantly lowers the bar for being profitable … which is why we like to feature our best line sportsbooks offers.