We went 2-0 last week with our two main bets, though I keep missing on the home run play. Hey, it’s really tough, that’s why there’s always nice plus money to be had. We’re going to miss both, but what do you say this time around we hit both bets and the home run. Let’s get to it here at Friday Night Lines.
All lines are from FanDuel.
They’re being overshadowed by the Brewers — we’ll get to them in a bit — but the Guardians have been the second-best team in the majors for a bit. They’ve gone 23-9 since July 6.
The Braves, yes, are on a nice run right now. They’ve won five of six. They just aren’t this good this season, so I’m looking for a little backslide now.
The pitching matchup is Hurston Waldrep (2-0, 1.54 ERA) against Joey Cantillo (3-2, 4.11) and that might look like it favors the Braves, but, again, I’m solely going on what I believe is a very simple premise here: The Guardians are the much better team right now and the Braves are due to lose.
Sometimes that’s just all it takes.
Sandy Alcantara, in his return from Tommy John surgery, has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB this season and it looks like the Marlins wasted a perfectly good trade window on him. Just before the deadline, he went 12 scoreless innings in back-to-back starts. They held him. In his two starts since, he’s coughed up 11 runs on 16 hits in 12 innings. His ERA is back up to 6.55 on the season.
The Red Sox offense has been going pretty well for a bit, too. They’ve averaged 5.97 runs per game since June 27. They, unsurprisingly, hit much better at home than on the road, too, and this one is in Fenway.
Further, Lucas Giolito is on the mound for the Red Sox and he’s allowed only one earned run in his last 27 innings in Fenway.
This one won’t be close. The Red Sox roll.
We’re gonna stay right there in Fenway. Abreu has a whopping 20 home runs against right-handed pitchers in 286 at-bats this season. He’s hit 11 home runs in 165 at-bats at home. We’ve already established that we’re picking on Alcantara, so everything lines up here.
Futures Play: Brewers to win the World Series +800
I laid out Thursday a breakdown of the Brewers piece-by-piece to illustrate that any perceived flaws they have aren’t really, actually there right now. Their odds still being in this ballpark means it’s too good right now to pass up.
