Stocks struggle for direction as Donald Trump announces new 25% large truck tariff

Ineos is set to cut a fifth of jobs at its Hull chemical plant, blaming net zero rules, high energy costs and competition from overseas.

It warned that the decision is part of a structural crisis in the industry, and that the UK and Europe are “sleepwalking into deindustrialisation”.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s chemical company added that the job losses are “a direct result of sky-high energy costs and anti-competitive trade practices”, claiming that importers are dumping their product into the UK and European markets.

David Brooks, CEO of INEOS Acetyls, said:

Shell (SHEL.L) has said it expects trading in its gas division to be “significantly higher” in the third quarter than in the previous three months.

In a trading update on Tuesday, Shell offered production guidance for its integrated natural gas division of 910,000 to 950,000 barrels of equivalent per day (boe/d) for the third quarter. That compared to a previously guided range of 910,000 to 970,000.

However, the Anglo-Dutch oil major said it expected trading and optimisation for this division to be “significantly higher” than in the second quarter.

Shell raised the production outlook for liquified natural gas (LNG) to a range of 7 million to 7.4 million metric tonnes, compared to previous guidance of 6.7 to 7.3 million metric tonnes.

The company forecasted production for upstream oil production in the third quarter to be between 1.79 million to 1.89 million boed.

Shell also said it expected to report a refining margin of $11.60 per barrel in the third quarter, which would be higher than the $8.90 recorded for the previous three months.

Tuesday’s trading update gives investors an idea of what to expect when Shell releases its full third quarter results on 30 October.

Shares in Shell rose 2% shortly after the market open on Tuesday morning, the second biggest gainer on the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) at the time of writing.

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Donald Trump announced that new tariffs on trucks imported to the US will begin at the start of next month.

From 1 November, all medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the US will face a 25% tariff rate, as the US president escalates his effort to protect US companies from foreign competition.

Posting on his Truth Social site, Trump said:

The announcement comes a day before he hosts Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, at the White House.

Northern Ireland once again lead the fastest annual property price inflation, with average property values up 6.5% over the past year (down from 7.9% last month), the data showed. The typical home now costs £216,496, though prices remain well below the UK average.

Meanwhile, Scotland recorded annual price growth of 4.5% in September to an average of £215,588. In Wales, property values rose 1.9% year-on-year to £227,845.

In England, the North East, recorded the strongest annual growth with prices up 4.8% to £180,443, followed by the North West (3.9%).

The South West saw a second consecutive price fall by 0.2% over the past year (previously 0.7%) with prices now £303,067.

Prices are up only very slightly on the year in London (0.6%) and the South East (0.2%), with the capital remaining the most expensive part of the UK, with an average property value of £543,497.

Average UK house prices fell 0.3% in September, with the £794 decrease erasing gains in August and bringing the cost of a typical home to £298,184.

Annually, prices grew 1.3% in September – the lowest annual rate since April 2024, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index.

In terms of the US government shutdown, last night saw a fresh vote on a stopgap bill to reopen the government. The vote failed as expected, with a margin of 52-42 as Republican leadership needed 60 votes to advance the bill.

Late on Monday, US president Donald Trump told reporters that he was open to negotiating with Democrats over the healthcare subsidies, saying: “We are speaking with the Democrats, and some very good things could happen with respect to health care.”

While Senate minority leader Schumer denied that claim, he remained open to discussing the subsidies.

The comments indicated there was a potential path to a deal, but betting markets continue to see a large divide. Polymarket now suggests an 68% chance of the shutdown not ending until at least 15 October, down from 74% before President Trump’s comments.

Polymarket has also priced in a 22% chance that this shutdown breaks the 35-day record.

Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight, as trading volumes remain subdued due to market holidays in China, Hong Kong and South Korea.

The Nikkei (^N225) ended flat on the day in Japan, following a 4.75% surge on Monday, which marked its best performance since April, when it responded to the 90-day reciprocal tariff extension.

Early morning data revealed that Japanese household spending increased at a faster rate than anticipated in August, suggesting that consumers are feeling relatively optimistic, which is a positive indicator for the recovery of private consumption.

Consumer spending rose 2.3% year-on-year in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth and significantly surpassing the median market forecast of a 1.2% increase.

Meanwhile, the Japan 30-year auction saw stronger demand than its 12-month average, alleviating investor concerns following Sanae Takaichi’s election victory over the weekend. Yields on the 30-year JGBs have decreased 2.6bps, trading at 3.28%, while the 10-year JGBs are down by -0.5bps, currently standing at 1.68% as we go to press.

Across the pond on Wall Street, US markets were unfazed by matters in Europe or the ongoing shutdown. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.7% higher — both moving to new record highs. The Dow Jones (^DJI) lost 0.1%.

Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what’s moving markets and happening across the global economy.

To the day ahead we have data releases including the US trade balance and German factory orders for August. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Nagel, and the Fed’s Bostic, Bowman, Miran and Kashkari.

Here’s a snapshot of what’s on the agenda:

• 7am: Trading updates: CVS Group, Imperial Brands, Lion Trust Asset Management, Victoria Plumbing, Angling Direct

• 7am: Halifax house price index

• 8am: Abta report on state of industry travel trends

• 2pm: IMF to release a chapter of its Global Financial Stability Report

• 5.30pm: FCA release on consultation released on proposed motor finance scheme. Shell quarterly update (so not the full Q3 results)